On 24 Oct 2015, at 13:17, WLS on APF mailing list wrote:The Guggenheim Museum has just launched an interactive online futures (as in alternative futures) market.Åzone Futures Market turns visitors into investors in our collective future. Based online, Åzone (pronounced “ozone”) takes the form of a marketplace of projections about the future. Anyone can sign up, receive some “cåin (Å)”—the Åzone currency, pronounced like “coin”—and start taking positions on the future lives they want to live. Hugo Liu, founder of the art valuation technology startup ArtAdviser, programmed a custom engine to make it work like a real stock market, where prices are sensitive to investor activity, reflecting overall interest in each “future.”See blog here:and go play here:
Web site for a course offered by the College of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Arkansas at Little Rock
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
A new futures market
Thursday, September 17, 2015
A few people have the strange idea that the Delphi method is sneaky and subversive
8/10/2015
P wrote:
You wouldn't think that the Delphi method is controversial.
[...]
Well, get ready! I stumbled upon a set of videos that claim that the Delphi technique is the way that decision makers can give a group the appearance of participation and input when they are really going to do what they had decided beforehand.
What? Manipulating groups does happen, but how does the Delphi get blamed for that?
[...]
So it's a mystery to me how the Delphi technique gets the blame for people manipulating groups. Go figure!...
Dan responds:
Interesting question!
The Delphi method appears to have gotten onto the radar screens of certain US political extremists. Extreme views in general get disproportionate play on the web, including youtube. So I do not think it is really controversial at this time but rather a lot of shouting from the fringe. In my half-hearted attempt to track down the origin of the effort to villify the Delphi method, I found that a lot (maybe all?) of it is a reaction to a book "Educating for the New World Order" by a Beverly Eakman (http://beverlyeakman.com/index.php/books/22-educating-for-the-new-world-order), who at first glance has strong education credentials but the least amount of digging reveals to hold fringe views. I tried to get a copy of the book through interlibrary loan to see what it said about the Delphi method but they could not find a copy, and I'd rather not purchase one. So why did she use the term "Delphi method" in the book? There is some hysteria inspired by this book that associates the Delphi method (or more accurately a corruption of it) with a much better-known, different book entitled "Rules for Radicals" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals) by Saul Alinsky. I do not have a copy of it but would like to know if that book uses the term "Delphi method." If it does, then that might be the original source of the corrupted use of the term. If not, then I don't know why Eakman focused in on the term.
Dan
--------------
9/10/2015
P,
I did a little more digging on this. Since it seemed that most if not all of the "controversy" seemed to derive from the 1991 book "Educating for the New World Order" by a B. K. Eakman, I finally got a copy of the book. So I can confirm that that book contains a number of strange statements about the Delphi Method that more recent sources seem to repeat and even paraphrase or quote. For example:
- "The Delphi Technique ... is a very unethical method of achieving 'agreement' on a controversial topic ..." - p. 38
-"... turn potentially hostile groups ... into acquiescent ... bodies by means of ...'the Delphi Technique.'" - p. 118
- "A specialized application of this technique applied specifically to teachers is called the Alinsky Method." p. 124
The essence of it is that Dept. of Education bureaucrats were using sneaky group manipulation techniques to hoodwink parents nationwide into agreeing to updates in school curricula, using the secretive and evil "Delphi Technique."
One might naturally wonder where Eakman got her information, and she does give one citation, along with a boring and insignificant quote from it. It was to a chapter in a 1974 book "Crucial Issues in Testing," which I was actually able to find without much trouble. So I got it this morning and checked the citation. That chapter does mention the Delphi technique, but only in a very normal way.
So I can only conclude that Eakman was confused. But the book was influential in that corner of the political universe and so the author's misuse of the term "Delphi" has become something of a meme
among a small (I hope) extremist community.
Best Regards,
Dan
---------
913/2015
I think this could be a useful bit of information. Practitioners, for example, might like to use the term "Delphi method" instead of "Delphi Technique" if only because the anomalous use seems to almost always use the term "Delphi Technique." I sort of hate to say it, but if there is a significant danger that clients might look it up ahead of a workshop or something like that, and be misled, then practitioners might want to not focus on the term in promotion or planning ahead of the workshop, to head off the possibility that a client would look it up ahead of time and be misled. But they should certainly use the method, calling it by name, during the event.
Dan
P wrote:
You wouldn't think that the Delphi method is controversial.
[...]
Well, get ready! I stumbled upon a set of videos that claim that the Delphi technique is the way that decision makers can give a group the appearance of participation and input when they are really going to do what they had decided beforehand.
What? Manipulating groups does happen, but how does the Delphi get blamed for that?
[...]
So it's a mystery to me how the Delphi technique gets the blame for people manipulating groups. Go figure!...
Dan responds:
Interesting question!
The Delphi method appears to have gotten onto the radar screens of certain US political extremists. Extreme views in general get disproportionate play on the web, including youtube. So I do not think it is really controversial at this time but rather a lot of shouting from the fringe. In my half-hearted attempt to track down the origin of the effort to villify the Delphi method, I found that a lot (maybe all?) of it is a reaction to a book "Educating for the New World Order" by a Beverly Eakman (http://beverlyeakman.com/index.php/books/22-educating-for-the-new-world-order), who at first glance has strong education credentials but the least amount of digging reveals to hold fringe views. I tried to get a copy of the book through interlibrary loan to see what it said about the Delphi method but they could not find a copy, and I'd rather not purchase one. So why did she use the term "Delphi method" in the book? There is some hysteria inspired by this book that associates the Delphi method (or more accurately a corruption of it) with a much better-known, different book entitled "Rules for Radicals" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals) by Saul Alinsky. I do not have a copy of it but would like to know if that book uses the term "Delphi method." If it does, then that might be the original source of the corrupted use of the term. If not, then I don't know why Eakman focused in on the term.
Dan
--------------
9/10/2015
P,
I did a little more digging on this. Since it seemed that most if not all of the "controversy" seemed to derive from the 1991 book "Educating for the New World Order" by a B. K. Eakman, I finally got a copy of the book. So I can confirm that that book contains a number of strange statements about the Delphi Method that more recent sources seem to repeat and even paraphrase or quote. For example:
- "The Delphi Technique ... is a very unethical method of achieving 'agreement' on a controversial topic ..." - p. 38
-"... turn potentially hostile groups ... into acquiescent ... bodies by means of ...'the Delphi Technique.'" - p. 118
- "A specialized application of this technique applied specifically to teachers is called the Alinsky Method." p. 124
The essence of it is that Dept. of Education bureaucrats were using sneaky group manipulation techniques to hoodwink parents nationwide into agreeing to updates in school curricula, using the secretive and evil "Delphi Technique."
One might naturally wonder where Eakman got her information, and she does give one citation, along with a boring and insignificant quote from it. It was to a chapter in a 1974 book "Crucial Issues in Testing," which I was actually able to find without much trouble. So I got it this morning and checked the citation. That chapter does mention the Delphi technique, but only in a very normal way.
So I can only conclude that Eakman was confused. But the book was influential in that corner of the political universe and so the author's misuse of the term "Delphi" has become something of a meme
among a small (I hope) extremist community.
Best Regards,
Dan
---------
913/2015
I think this could be a useful bit of information. Practitioners, for example, might like to use the term "Delphi method" instead of "Delphi Technique" if only because the anomalous use seems to almost always use the term "Delphi Technique." I sort of hate to say it, but if there is a significant danger that clients might look it up ahead of a workshop or something like that, and be misled, then practitioners might want to not focus on the term in promotion or planning ahead of the workshop, to head off the possibility that a client would look it up ahead of time and be misled. But they should certainly use the method, calling it by name, during the event.
Dan
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
Transcript - Sample Student Presentations
Class:
Informatics, Computing, and the Future
Instructor:
Dan Berleant
Transcriber:
Brooke Yu
Date:
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Professor: We'll give people another minute or two.
Professor: Okay, we're going to start our student
presentations today. We have four
presenters, and a number of presenters on other days. If you haven't signed up yet, see me after
class and I'll get you scheduled.
Hopefully everyone sees their names there and is not surprised. Let's begin the presentations then.
Male
Student: We're here to talk about a
product line called Empire Products.
It's mainly security tools we've developed for this site [On board.] There's about 4,000 people on here and we've
bought a group called Empire.
It's what we
mainly use to market our software or products such as Empire stresser which is
basically a security tool for testing networks.
Male
Student: It's pretty much you can....
like something you can test your network.
If you wanted to see how many people could get on your network at a
certain time, you could calculate how much memory they'd use and you could amp
that amount up and see how your security works.
Male
Student: It allows you to check the amount
of traffic your network can hold. If you
make a blog or a social media site, it'll tell you how many people you can
handle at a time. We can simulate a test
up to 10 million people at once. You'll
be a large site, but it'll show you how to check it. Our system can shoot up to about 115
gigabytes per second. Amazon can only
handle up to 82.
Male
Student: Say you own a company and you
can take control of your company's computers- you can monitor what people do on
there. You want to know when people are
selling your secrets, so you could find out what files are on their computer,
what sites they're visiting, etc. Say
you had a daughter and you wanted to know who they were talking to online-
you'd want to know if they were sending pictures online or communicating with
strangers.... you can also use it for... say you have your spouse and you think
"well, maybe she's cheating on Me."
You can buy the product and download it and you can see exactly what
they're doing.
Male
Student: Three months ago, one of our
clients suspected his wife was cheating on her.
She blocked him on facebook and he was able to see when she was lying
about going places. So that was not good
for him so he figured it out.
Male
Student: You can find out if there are
any predators talking to your children at home.
You can find out their IP addresses and you can find out where they
are.
Male
Student: Another thing about RAT- the
university uses a similar program. One
computer will be able to see all of this- you can see the system information,
make sure everything is up to date. You
can make sure it'll start up the antivirus on all the computers instead of
going to each computer individually. You
can manage them from one computer- you can check what people are doing, lock it
so certain people aren't allowed to download certain things. If Java has an update, you can access the
update for all the computers and it'll update all the computers for it.
Male
Student: My experience with this- I
worked in the DSC and they have a program called Deep Freeze. You can lock down the program so that nothing
can be changed, but you can do the updates on what's called a ghost computer,
and that's what every computer in the building is supposed to look like.
Male
Student: That's what you're able to do
with this as well, but this is much less expensive- $30/year.
Male
Student: We have some social media
marketing products as well. When you're
trying to start up a company or something, you want to be popular almost
immediately, so you fake your market base immediately. If you're starting to be a rapper or
something, then you can have 50,000 twitter followers.
Male
Student: Like my twitter which has
40,000. It sends out tweets
automatically and handles it all.
Male
Student: Twitter followers- we can do up
to 100,000 followers, and 10,000 favorites on your tweets or your people. For youtube, you want to buy subscribers to
your videos so you get more money or to show more people have viewed it. You can trend on twitter as well
Male
Student: It takes 3,000 people to
retweet your comment to be listed on the most popular site. We can put you at number 1 for about 45
minutes, but the whole country can see that.
Male
Student: Say if you were owning a
business like a barbecue restaurant. You
can alter how many people have favorited your restaurant. We can also do Tumblr likes/reblogs. If you want to feel more important than you
actually are, then you can buy a certain amount of likes.
Male
Student: Then once you get a lot of fake
likes, then real people will like it.
For example, during the presidential campaign, 33% of their likes were
fake, which actually helped gain them more followers.
Male
Student: One of our slogans could be
"you want to be the next Internet sensation? We believe you can. You just need a little help."
Some people
really need attention to get along with their lives, so if you get fake
attention, then more real attention will follow from that. We can do Instagram likes and we can do up to
20,000 instagram likes, so you can have a really popular picture on
INstagram.
Other things
we can do is with services like this where we're able to simulate mass likes
and things, we're able to amplify it to handle up to 150,000 people at one
time. Most companies charge about $300
to do this, but we can do it for $200.
We're able to
see if there's an error in code or if someone is able to- if you have a paid
service and it costs money to join your site, if there's a loop where people
can get in for free, then we can catch that so you don't lose money. We're able to make sure your site is
secure.
Also, these
are some of the features to the left.
The task manager shows what's going on with each computer. The file manager will allow you to go through
their files without them knowing. If you
have to send a memo to your employees, it'll go through the background like
that. You can view their screen live
time and it's one of the most accurate tools- you could even watch them
watching a youtube video. You could see
if they were doing their work or just watching videos online.
You can block
certain websites- you could keep them from going to facebook or twitter when
they're supposed to be working, or any other types of restrictions. You can change the administrative password on
all computers at once.
Does anyone
have any websites that they want to recommend?
Just any website.
Male
Student: Reddit.
Male
Student: Then we just click this and it
tells us the IP address. If we wanted
to attack them we could to see if their network was strong. We could also copy this- the IP address, put
it in the tools menu, add them to a target.
Male
Student: Just so if there are certain
sites you want to test, you can just click the IP and that way it'll put it
right into the settings just in case you have to use it on your phone.
Male
Student: You can also find the location
of where the website is hosted. Then you
find out it's in Cambridge, MA in the US.
Male
Student: We're also going to add in a
system son that if you use a static IP address, it'll be able to pull up the
actual address. If you have a friend on
Skype, you can type in the IP address and his name and you can pull up his full
address. Sometimes you can get names and
phone numbers too.
Male
Student: It'll be able to show you who
you're talking to and all that stuff.
Some of the
different methods for this- UDP is our strongest method. It's going to take out anything that you're
ever going to hit. Certain large sites
will have protection against these.
These sites usually go down after an HTTP flood. It'll shut down their domain instead of the
sever. If you have the IP for the
server, you can visit that. Anyone going
to their domain will automatically be blocked.
People use this when you play Xbox and you suck. If you send this, it'll make them lag. This probably has happened to you.
If all of a
sudden you're lagging, someone was probably using this. There are hundreds of sites like ours that
don't have as many members, but when people send that attack, it'll send a
burst to your Internet to shut it off for about 3 seconds.
Also, the
Skype flood will be able to track the IP address. Say someone is harassing you on Skype. If you type in their name, it'll turn off
their Internet automatically. Mainly,
our biggest customers for stuff like this are businesses that want to check
their servers or game sites like Minecraft.
We do have
terms service. If we catch reports of
shutting down other people's sites, we close their account. Most people just check their own sites.
Male
Student: Or say you're getting stalked
by someone. As soon as they get on there
to stalk you, it just suits them down immediately. Some people just shut off their own Internet
very often. We've probably had more
attacks on their own Internet.
We have a
support system too if you have questions.
The good thing about these types of sites- we've been running this for
about a year. It brings in about $17,000
per month. It's a popular service, but
if anyone uses it for bad purposes, we have to shut them down. This is powered by over 40 servers which
allow us to simulate attacks. We have
done it for Amazon once, which is how we found out they could handle 82
gigabytes.
You're only
allowed to do home IP addresses, or sites that are your own.
Male
Student: Does anyone else have any more
websites where they could see where they're located?
Professor: Let's try thehumanracetothefuture.com.
Male
Student: So I'll copy it.
Professor: It's my site.
Male
Student: And move it into the post and
see where they're located.
So it's
located in Australia.
Professor: Yep.
Male
Student: Then all you have to do is if
he wanted to test his site just click here.
We only allow up to 8 gigabytes/second for regular customers, but we do
have custom accounts
You'd be able
to choose your settings, the power, and number of attacks. Believe it or not, a lot of people do buy
accounts of that size. I don't know why
they do, but they do. Most of it, we
don't keep logs of. We only log payment
information to make sure you're not using a stolen credit card- just for
payment purposes. Since we do it through
paypal, We can only see your email
address and paypal makes sure you're using it appropriately.
Male
Student: You can also us Liberty
Reserve, and there will be a code for UALR students, and there will be a 10%
discount.
Male
Student: We can also blacklist Skype
accounts so certain IP addresses won't be able to get hit.
Male
Student: And we do have a terms of
service that we have to inform people of the rules. You have to agree to this before you can
start making payments. But it's just
mainly to protect us. If you do anything
wrong... it's mainly for legal reasons.
Like the RAT-
you can install it on someone else's computer, but we have a lot of protection
against that. Any questions?
Professor: So are you going to look for a job when you
graduate?
Male
Student: I do this, and then I work for
a security company.
Professor: And you're a computer science major?
Male
Student: Yes.
Professor: How about you?
Male
Student: System engineering.
Professor: Alright.
Any other questions? Okay.
Male
Student: Can you tell us what we
got?
Professor: I'll send you an email.
Male
Student: Okay, thank you.
Male
Student: So are you two the ones who run
that?
Male
Student: That site, yes.
Male
Student: Okay. I'm Jacob
Male
Student: I'm JJ
Male
Student: We've been studying on energy
based weaponry.
Male Student: There are multiple types of lasers. Most are dye lasers. To determine frequency- sometimes they just
spray the liquid across in front of the beam of light. They use organic dyes and it just flows in
front of a light source and there's a lot of physics that I don't understand
that makes it turn into the harsh light that it is.
They're very
configurable because you can change the dye and the frequency at which it is
shot. They're also really good because
you can shoot a continuous beam because the dye doesn't heat up as fast and can
be cooled. Solid state lasers though
have heat constraints, and those lasers are shot in pulses, sometimes in
picoseoncds.
Male
Student: So a COIL laser- these are
chemical oxygen iodine lasers. They're
powered with... gaseous chlorine.
They're used for more industrial purposes because they can cut through
metals.
Male
Student: These lasers are also able to
be transferred through fiber optic cables.
Male
Student: So if you need to transfer it
through a building, you can transfer it like that.
Male
Student: The first true weaponized laser
system was developed by the US and Israel.
They had plans to finish it, but it was discontinued in 1996. It was a joint operation with Boeing. It was originally to be mounted on an AC130,
but it was mounted on something else later.
It weighed about 7,000 kg and it was COIL based.
[Video]
February 11,
2010. Watching a target be destroyed by
a laser while both are in flight. It's
coupled with atmospheric correction equipment and can
Male
Student: HELLADS were used to shoot down
missiles, drones- anything like that.
They were only tested at 15 KW.
They're still in development. I
can't say if they've finished it yet.
On the Boeing
YAL-1, it begin in 2004 and it used one of the COIL lasers that were used in
industrial places.
Male
Student: The laWS laser- there was an
article where they showed a laser mounted on a warship- it was a LaWS
laser. It can completely destroy
whatever it's shooting at, or just send warnings. Right now, it can't keep up with ballistic
missiles. That's why they still have
tomahawk missiles.
Male
Student: These aren't the kinds of
lasers you'd see in Star Wars. You can't
see them in the sky like that.
Male
Student: This is a video of the Boeing
YAL-1.
Male
Student: Is there sound?
Professor: You should be able to get sound
[Video]
That means
hitting a target capable of 4,000 mph with a laser. You can see from this view that motion can
seem small. The US hopes one day it
will able to track many targets at once at a lower cost. For now, the price is a problem, so
development as ceased.
Male
Student: So as you can see... I mean,
they're not really far off. What you see
in Star Wars we're already working on today.
A lot of the systems weigh so much that they're hard to
Male
Student: Would a light saber be solid
state based?
Male
Student: I don't know how you would bend
the light to keep it at a certain length.
Male
Student: The laser is expensive, but to
shoot it it costs less than $1
[Video]
The US Navy
faces any threats. Missiles are
important to ship defense, but they're limited and expensive. Lasers produce reduced collateral
damage. The naval sea weapons system is
investigating the use of lasers on naval ships one is the LaWS.
NAVSEA is the
center for research. LaWS tracks targets
and engages them with one powerful beam of light. This consists of cooling units, tracking, and
control hardware, and a beam director on a mount. The mount keep the laser pointed at the
target. This is a computer controlled,
rapid fire auto cannon that shoots in the air.
It was developed for integrated warfare systems. In 2009, LaWS was tested in a desert
environment in California. A team of
scientists set up the instrumentation.
The UAS's were launched.
The test was
a complete success. Each caught fire,
lost control, fell to the desert floor and crashed. The test demonstrated the capability of the
LaWS system. It was later tested in an
over water simulation. This remote
island provide realistic and challenging maritime conditions. LaWS was connected and operated by various
scientists. This test was also a
success. Locating, tracking, and
destroying four more UAS's.
LaWS program
manager said the success of this effort validates the use of these weapons in a
maritime environment.
Other targets
were also successfully engaged during this test. The highly successful tests show that LaWS is
accurate and successful in maritime and desert environment. It's a low-risk, high pay off technology. It's the Navy's first energy weapon
system. It is a gamma changing technology
that will produce a new weapon that has the ability to conserve defensive
missiles for use on other targets.
Male
Student: So it's also about doing things
more efficiently. It costs less than
buying ammo. In the long run, it will
save the government money.
Male
Student: There's our source slide.
Male
Student: For another part of our
project, since we're doing lasers, we got remote control helicopters with IR
blasters. You can actually see the
lasers with the camera off of a phone.
Male
Student: I have mine.
Male
Student: You can see the IR blaster on
the phone. Only poor cameras can see
it.
Male
Student: These aren't going to be like
lasers you could use to shoot down missiles, but it's the same concept.
Male
Student: We bought these helicopters,
and they're a lot harder to fly than we thought they were going to be.
Male
Student: So can you shoot the other one
down?
Male
Student: Yeah, it'll spiral, then you
have to wait 10 seconds to start using it again
Male
Student: They have sensors to receive
the IR signals. One of our roommates had
an IR device, and we were going to set up an obstacle course
Male
Student: We were also thinking about
taking them to the laser tag arena at PlayTime Pizza, but we didn't know if the
IR would be on the same frequency.
Male
Student: Honestly, it's a lot easier to
just run into each other than to hit each other with the laser.
Male
Student: This is something we came up
when researching. But I think the
batteries might be going bad.
Male
Student: Yeah, we practiced a lot.
Male
Student: So that's what we ended up...
they don't hold a charge for very long.
Professor: So the helicopters have three rotors?
Male
Student: Yeah. This one helps us to stabilize. This isn't keeping it up.
Professor: Do they spin in opposite directions?
Male
Student: I don't know.
Male
Student: Yeah, they do. The bottom one spins this way and the top one
spins this way.
Professor: Otherwise the helicopter would tend to spin
the other way.
Male
Student: Yeah, I'll show you.
Professor: Why don't we all crowd around the front so we
can see.
Male
Student: Were you able to see the IR
very well?
Professor: I saw it on the screen
Male
Student: Oh, okay.
Professor: Do you all want to come up and look at the
helicopters?
Male
Student: You can fly them if you
want.
Male
Student: You won't break them, I
promise. They would already be broken if
they were going to be broken.
Professor: So the controllers send IR beams?
Male
Student: No, I think that's radio
frequency.
Male
Student: The laser is under the nose and
the receiver is under the blaster.
Professor: I don't understand the point of the
laser.
Male
Student: It shoots the other helicopter
down.
Professor: So it's programmed to crash?
Male
Student: It starts spiraling and then it
slowly drops. Any questions about lasers
or little helicopters?
Male
Student: We'll try to answer any
questions you have. It's cool to see
where everything is going. It's not
really in future- it's now.
Professor: What's the power of the lasers?
Male
Student: I've never looked at it.
Professor: If it's too powerful, it can cause eye
damage. Even though you can't see the
beam, if it's powerful it'll burn the retina
Male
Student: I never thought about that
Professor: It might say on the bottom the
helicopter.
Male
Student: Haha, keep away from eyes.
Male
Student: And college students.
Male
Student: So are there any other
questions?
Professor: Okay, so I have a few more words to say about
robots, but I just want to mention what's coming up- one more homework and some
more presentations. This homework is a
"test." It's the same amount
of points as a homework, but I call it a test because I want you to work hard
on it because it's for the accreditation process. Just do your best on it because I want you to
do well.
So let's
see. Robotics
I have a
bunch of things here. Let me just show
you. So there's an organization called
lifeboat foundation. Its purpose is to
provide a website and an organization that will provide information about how
to prevent existential risks to humanity.
Like if a big asteroid hits the planet, that's a risk to our
species.
Somewhere on
this website there will be a page of links and people who are interested in
preventing asteroid impacts.
One of their
programs is to protect against artificial intelligence.
This part of
the organization has developed a document explaining the different risks that
can occur based on AI, and I was one of the authors of it I'm proud to
say. It was fun.
I guess I
won't go through the document itself, but I'll show you the highlights of
it.
The
conclusion here is to support the concept of friendly AI. There are certain risks to AI. For example, robots could be hostile, but
they could also just not care about humans and just support their own purposes
and if robots are made out of steel and they don't want to rust, they might try
to remove all of the oxygen, which would be bad for us. That would be an unintended consequence.
Another
unintended consequence is follows: suppose we had benevolent robots that we
commanded to make life as pleasant as possible for as many people as
possible. They might think the best way
to do this is to put electrodes in our brains and just stimulate them until we
do. If given an opportunity to stimulate
the pleasure centers of their brains, they'll neglect things like feelings of
hunger. That's something we have to
prevent from happening.
Male
Student: There's a movie like that where
you can't experience pain. They sell
drugs that turn pleasure into pain. I
can't remember what it's called.
Professor: Well, what's the difference between that and
regular drug use? They have some sort of
pain and then the drugs make them feel good, so they take them.
Male
Student: I think the drugs now are to
produce pleasure. But in the movie, you
bought drugs to feel pain
Professor: Ah, I see.
Remember, we talked about the Singularity. The most troubling concept about it is that
we don't know what things will be like.
We can't predict if it'll be good or bad. If we could figure out what would happen
after the singularity, it wouldn't be a singularity.
Unintended
consequences can occur because of Murphy's law. What it says is that if something can go
wrong, it will.
Male
Student: Wasn't it someone else's law
actually? His name was on it to prove
that point.
Professor: Haha, I haven't heard that. When you have a complex system, it'll be hard
for every part of that system to work exactly as it should, so things will go
wrong. For the system to work, every
component must work. It's easy for one
out of 100 components to break, then the system won't work.
If anyone has
ever had a really obscure problem with an automobile- they have lot of parts
and it's full of microprocessors. One of
our cars- every now and then the battery goes completely dead. Now we think it's a headlight relay getting
stuck and it drains the battery. Unless
you catch it in the act, it's hard to diagnose those kinds of errors. With complex systems, if something can go
wrong, it will.
The same is
true for plans- like complex laws passed by congress can have unintended
effects sometimes. Let's see what else I
can say here.
Here are three
paradigms for how humans and AI can interact.
One is by cooperation. So AI will
serve humanity. If it's a superhuman AI,
it'll have superhuman powers to guide the economy, assist in government, and do
things better than we could.
Does anyone
have a cell phone with Siri?
Male
Student: I have S-voice. It's basically the same
Professor: Okay, so your phones are getting there- they
can talk to you and you can talk to them.
In my opinion, we'll soon have cell phones that can act as your personal
assistant. You'll be able to talk to you
and they'll be able to give you advice on things. As they get smarter and smarter to the point
where they're artificially intelligent, it'll be like having a personal
guardian angel that is wise and can tell you everything you want to know. "How do I make up with my
Girlfriend?" It'll be able to tell
you that too.
The other
paradigm is the competition paradigm.
That's the classic "them against Us" idea.
Then there's
the combination of cooperation and competition.
An example of that is where the robots try to help, but they end you
causing harm. Suppose a robotic soldier
is created. It's good for the people
deploying it, but not for the opposing army.
We could
spend a whole class on that document, but I want to give you some more
highlights.
I'm in
bragging mode here. Let me show you one
more thing on this website.
That document
that I showed you was incorporated in part into a book which I'm writing which
will be published shortly by this foundation.
Male
Student: You're the one writing the
book?
Professor: Yeah, I'm almost finished. They got donations to help publicize it. I hope a lot of people will get it and read
it. Some people affiliated with the
organization are donating money to help market it. I'll show you some of the covers here. We only have one cover that's ready for
deployment, but we're getting some others.
I kind of
like this cover. If anyone has any
comments or critiques, I'll take them.
What do you
think?
Male
Student: I like it.
Professor: So this is the name of the organization-
we're putting the logo on the cover.
Professor: We kind of hid the G here and fade out the M,
but to me it looks too much like the real company. Do you think I'm being oversensitive?
Male
Student: I like it.
Professor: Okay.
I really like the rest of the device with the now and the future and the
years raveled.
Male
Student: What's LF?
Professor: That's Lifeboat- the name of the
organization.
Male
Student: So did you email them?
Professor: I know the guy who runs the
organization. I've never actually met
this guy.
Male
Student: So he could be robot for all
you know. He may not even be a
person. It's already started.
Professor: So there's one cover. I'll show you another.
Male
Student: That's another one that they're
choosing between.
Professor: We're not going to go with this one. I don't like it.
Male
Student: I like the other one.
Professor: It's kind of a cool picture.
Male
Student: It's not futuristic.
Professor: Yeah, it doesn't say much about the
future. What do you think about that
one?
Male
Student: That's tricky. I like it.
I like how it shows the timeline.
Professor: Yeah, so there's a couple of thing that need
to be done before it's ready to be put on the book, but I like it. And here's more.
These are all
done by one artist, and they're all just sort of drafts.
Male
Student: Are they people who just
submitted it?
Professor: Well, they're by someone the organization is
affiliated with.
Male
Student: I like the second from the last
one.
Male
Student: Yeah, that's cool. The last one looks like the gas station
symbol.
Male
Student: I do like the speedometer
one.
Professor: That one, apparently a number of people do
like that one.
Male
Student: Can you click on it and make it
bigger?
Professor: I don't know.
Male
Student: I like the blue one at the
end.
Male
Student: I kind of like it.
Professor: I hadn't thought about this one. I kind of like it.
Professor: This is the one that's been brought to the
point where it's ready to be put on the book.
We're going to start out with this one.
Male
Student: I like that one.
Male
Student: I like that one.
Professor: Yeah, I like the font too. It's kind futuristic. That's probably my least favorite. Alright, well maybe next time I teach the
course I'll put the book in the reading material. We'll see.
I want to
show you a couple of pictures and videos before we call it a day. Some day robots will be farming and
things. They already have robotic lawn
mowers.
Male
Student: Is it like a Rhumba with
blades?
Professor: Kind of.
Male
Student: That's scary!
Professor: A robotic lawn mower cares for and maintains
the grass. It could attack weeds, water-
which they don't do these things now- but it's the first step towards robotic farming. You have to improve those bots that can
provide water and kill weeds. I think in
the future farming and gardening will be helped by robotics.
I have a
whole lecture here, but I don't want to get into those. This is one of the most advanced.
Male
Student: I've seen that. Have you seen the one where it was sliding on
something?
[Video]
Professor: This is a pack animal bot. It's for military use.
Male
Student: They also made a big spider
that someone can sit in.
Male
Student: Maybe they should train it to
detect beater terrain.
Male
Student: It doesn't seem very efficient
at this point
Male
Student: It needs bigger feet.
Male
Student: Oh, it's prancing now.
Male
Student: Is this under development?
Professor: They're doing it for military applications,
but I don't know if they're selling them to the army yet. This one is probably about a year old.
Male
Student: There's a spider one that you
can sit in and you can walk it.
Professor: Well, I know they're still in business and
they're still developing.
Male
Student: I saw a video of a robot that
was walking on two legs on a treadmill.
Professor: There's so much activity in robotics that
every month they come out with new stuff.
Male
Student: Carnegie Mellon is developing a
robotic snake. They threw it against a
tree and it wrapped itself around the tree.
That's it.
[Video]
These snake
robots can use their many degrees of freedom to coordinate movement.
Male
Student: If that thing was wireless, the
military could use that to scout.
Professor: Alright.
Speaking of military scouting, those little helicopters are things like
the military was looking at.
Male
Student: The CIA has a little bug that
can take DNA samples and they can record your conversations because it can get
onto your clothing and ride into your house with you.
Professor: You can buy small versions of these things
for yourself. You can just imagine the
things the military can do. See you next
time.
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