Information, Computing, and the Future
Homework 5, due Friday, Feb. 25, 2022
1) Report on two prediction markets other than intrade.com. They do not have to necessarily describe themselves as "prediction markets" as long as they are, in fact, environments in which people buy and sell based on their estimates of something in the future.
Directions: The title of your blog post should indicate "HW 5" (if your blog is not working then you will need to email this HW to the instructor). Number your answers according to the question numbers below.
2) Critique the prediction market idea. Why might their predictions be wrong?
3) Pausch claims, "... when you do the right thing, good stuff has a way of happening." And later, "It's not about how to achieve your dreams, it's about how to lead your life. If you lead your life the right way, the karma will take care of itself. The dreams will come to you [i.e., will happen automatically]."
This is an example of something called the "just world hypothesis." On the other hand, there is a well known book entitled When Bad Things Happen to Good People. And recall that Pausch himself gave this lecture after being diagnosed with terminal pancreatic cancer.
Discuss your opinions on this important issue.
4) Write up 200 words on how your project topic will affect your personal future (this can be re-used later as part of the ultimate writeup). If the topic will not affect your personal future, then instead, write 200 words on something else for your project. If your project does not involve writing, do something else of equivalent effort and explain what you did. Multi-person projects - if you coordinate with your other team member(s), then the coordination counts as part of the overall effort, so a little less than 200 words would be acceptable.
5) Identify 8-10 sources of information about your project topic (web pages are fine). Provide the URLs and give 2-3 sentences describing each one. (Multi-person projects: any overlap should be small.) These sources of information can be part of your eventual project if it is a writeup (e.g. you could put it in the references section). If for some reason this question doesn't apply to your project, do something else instead and explain.
Building Your Personal Future
6) ("Do"). Based on your work on this topic, identify something that will progress you toward your vision, such as a strategic action that helps address a strategic issue, such as a core strategic issue that is a prerequisite to others. (On your blog, simply note if you succeeded on this question, but don't put the answer there.)
7) ("Monitor"). Consider the results of the "Do" step you just completed. How well did it work, or is it working now? If well, then you are on track. If instead any problems of any kind arose, see 3. (On your blog, note if it worked or not, but don't put what it was.)
8) ("Accountability"). Consider the results of the "Monitor" step you just completed. If it worked, reward yourself! If things did not go as well as hoped for, analyze why and what you could do to circumvent them. Take notes on this for future reference. (On your blog, note the result of this question in general terms, but don't put any details.)
8a). (Optional) Repeat the "Do," "Monitor," "Accountability" cycle.
8b). (Optional) Keep on repeating, good luck, and remember to smell the flowers!
9) Grad students only. Read 20 pages in the book you have obtained. Explain what you agree with, disagree with, learned from it, and how your views agree with or disagree with the reviewers of the book.
