From Centralized to Decentralized Societies

1/13/2018: found the source file and stored it in
courses-b7-14-16\informationComputingAndTheFuture\Content\lectureDecentralizedSocieties-WFS2013based

2017 updates:

I must have archived the source file of the talk at home so could not update it directly

     So, I list the major updates here


Update 1: What happens when the lights go out

Remember Hurricane Irma and Puerto Rico

        This is a "mild" example of the dangers of centralized electricity

        Note:

                PR is *much* better able to function without electricity than, say NYC!


Update 2: Another recent addition to the most reputable collapse literature

        Peter Turchin



With these in mind, let's go to the talk

Futuristic/sci-fi shorts for Spring 2019

5 very short ones:
www.outerplaces.com/science-fiction/item/17878-philip-k-dick-film-festival-shorts

#9 at io9.gizmodo.com/10-excellent-new-sci-fi-and-fantasy-shorts-you-need-to-1827912662

Car theft (think about the future of "car hacking") at futurism.com/videos/protect-your-car-hack-attack

Elon Musk's "Loop" at futurism.com/videos/musks-loop-almost-ready

Making the future: From invention to customer discovery

Two approaches to future technology

1) Remember the past, then
         predict the future

     Example: exponential "laws"

2) Dream the future, then
         make it happen

     Example 1: Rain Mon

     Example 2: Let's make our own!

We'll do it workshop style...

       We need to decide on working as

            Larger groups

            Groups of 2

            Individuals (the choice that went literally viral 2020 & 2021!)

      Best way under normal circumstances:

             Full class, then small groups, then individuals

      Let's do, then reflect on, each stage below...

     

A. Decide on your interest

First,

     Write down some steps in

               your typical use of:

                       a faucet (or other water dispenser)

Next,

     Write down a few steps in

               your typical use of:

                       a smartphone

Let's hear a few...

Now, decide what to invent a new kind of or improvement to:

      Faucets

      or

      Smartphones

      or

      Social media design for a specific community

      or

      Sunglasses

      or

      Something else of your choice

B. Write down *more* steps

Lots and lots of steps!

Are any of them annoying?

Then we'll compare notes

C. Find "pain points"

What step(s) are associated with

     glitches

     delays
   
     annoyances

     inconveniences

     frustrations

     etc.

     ?

Find the pain points

Then we'll compare notes

You can update your steps if you like

D. Invent solution(s)!

Create solution(s) to pain point(s)

Then we'll compare notes

Use a technique, many exist

     TRIZ  (we discussed)

     9 Windows

     6 Hats

     Mind Maps

     Various others (take "Strategies for Innovation")

     Brainstorming (a good choice for today)

             Hint on the best way to brainstorm: 

                   Generate ideas freely

                        "No idea left behind!"

                   Judge them later

E. The lean canvas

Suppose we wanted to make a startup

The "Lean Canvas" is a new planning method

      A variation is the "Business Model Canvas"

It is a path forward on one sheet of paper

      Compare that to a 50-page "Business Plan"

One is much shorter

One is easier to change

      Startup ideas often do change!

One more realistically matches the startup process

One is rapidly growing more popular

Let's look at a lean canvas template now

      image search for one, or go here

In fact, let's fill it out together,

    one compartment at a time

    Problem(s)

    Solution(s)

    Unique value proposition

    Unfair advantage (if any)

    Customer segment(s)

        We'll focus on this more later

    Channel(s)

    Cost structure

    Revenue streams

F. Customer discovery

You think you know they want it

    But do they?

    You have to ask them!

Figure out some questions to ask them

Interview your neighbor (or the group if we're online)

    Then we'll switch to new neighbors

If time, let's try another one!

Theories of Innovation and the National Robotics Initiative

Update notes: Check current state of NRI which is NRI 2.0. Then review NRI lecture and update as needed:

to do this see https://www.nsf.gov/funding/pgm_summ.jsp?pims_id=503641

Robots and the Future...

If robots could do all the work

     We could all be on permanent vacation

     Would this be a good idea?

If robots could do all the work

     We could all be out of work and hungry

     What determines which scenario occurs?


Source: techcrunch.com/2017/03/31/we-need-a-new-deal-to-address-the-economic-risks-of-automation/


source: www.makeuseof.com/tag/happens-robots-can-jobs/

From Need to Economic Opportunity

• Governments what their country to have robotics industry leadership
• This is economics... it means $$$
• US, China, EU, Taiwan, S. Korea, Japan, Netherlands all have...
• Strategic documents guiding national efforts

The Made in China 2025 plan

• Includes dominating industrial robotics
• Already well on the way
• E.g. www.machinedesign.com/motion-control/china-s-plan-become-robotic-powerhouse

The US Effort

• The National Robotics Initiative (NRI 2.0)
• Created 2011
• Focuses on co-robots
• Definition updated 2020
• Robots that work with people or other robots to accomplish a goal
• Can't do that with current industrial robots
• They're too dangerous!
• Funding for researchers from
• NSF, NASA, NIH, USDA, NIOSH

Current plan is called -

National Robotics Initiative 2.0: 

Ubiquitous Collaborative Robots  (NRI-2.0)

• "...support fundamental research in the United States that will accelerate the development and use of...co-robots"

National Science Foundation effort

• Emphasis on funding robotics research resulting in
• Was: 
• open architectures and reusable tool kits
• Now: 
• Ubiquity through
• Scalability, customizability, lowering barriers to entry, and societal impact
• Idea is that this will catalyze economic progress
• ... and catapult the US into the lead
• (Note that results will necessariliy be available world wide, not just in the US)

Why Apply Innovation Theory to 

Inform Gov't Efforts to Support

Robotics Research?

Economic growth depends on innovation

Spur robotics innovation to

           produce more jobs

           compete internationally

           increase the wealth of society

How does it increase wealth?

           Higher productivity per hour worked

                    There is then more to be spread around

Will it necessarily be spread around?

Source: www.techcrates.com/robotics-research-review/

Comments?

How compelling is that argument to you?

How does this mesh with theories of innovation?

Ref.: Verspagen, B., “Innovation and economic growth,” in The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, J. Fagerberg, D. Mowery, and R. Nelson, Eds. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005, pp. 487-513.

Verspagen:

How Do You Cope in this Verspagen World?

...Another Theory...

How Do You Cope in a Customer Centered Innovation World?

What might that be?

Recall models from last time: 

The Christensen III Model...

Why?

Any Suggestions for Promoting Robotics in a VCE World?

How does the Abernathy and Utterback Model handle it?

                          

Abernathy and Utterback Model:

Which stage should government funding encourage the most?

Which stage should government funding encourage the most?

A Model for Developing Robotics Companies

Robotic lawn mowers

Theories of Innovation

Note to instructor: With full discussion of each theory, a 150-min. class will not finish all the theories