Wednesday, February 8, 2012

TRIZ


1. "TRIZ":
a way to get ideas
--  about  --
future technologies

. . . But why call it TRIZ?


. . . . . . because "TRIZ"
            stands for:
           Теория
           решения
           изобретательских
           задач


. . . . . . . . . (obvious, right?)


. . . . . . transliteration:
           Teoriya
           Resheniya
           Izobretatelskikh
           Zadatch


. . . . . .direct translation (more or less):
           Theory of
           Solutions to
           Invention
           Problems


. . . . . .typical translation:
           Theory of
           Inventive 
           Problem
           Solving


1.1    TRIZ
      a systematic way
      to get new ideas
      about technology


. . . TRIZ was created by
      Genrich Altshuller (pronunciation)
         (1926-1998)




















Source: Many locations throughout the web


. . . . . . He registered
            his first invention
            at age 15


. . . . . . 1948: wrote to Stalin 
. . . . . . . . criticizing the invention
. . . . . . . . situation in the motherland

. . . . . . 1950: arrested, sentenced to 25 years
. . . . . . . . sent to a gulag in Vorkuta
. . . . . . . . an arguably god-forsaken city
. . . . . . . . north of the Arctic circle but not in Siberia
. . . . . . . . released in 1954 (Stalin died in 1953)


1.2  . . . . . . At 20 he invented
            a way to escape
            from submarines


. . . . . . . . . (This did not help
                  the crew of
                  the Kursk)


. . . . . . . . . . . . length:
                        154 meters
                        How long is that?


. . . . . . . . . . . . (just under 1/10 mile)



. . . . . . . . . . . . height:
                        four stories

                       (not quite as tall as
                       the EIT building)                                                    


. . . . . . . . . . . . The Kursk
                        was the world's
                        biggest attack submarine


. . . . . . . . . . .  on August 12, 2000 a fuel explosion
                       sank it


                       (Altschuller had died in 1998)

                       Hitting the sea bottom
                       caused torpedoes
                       to explode


                       Some crew
                       survived both explosions
                       but perished later
                       without escaping


                      Goodbye notes
                      were found

       Part of salvaged wreck of
               K-141 Kursk
(Source: englishrussia.com/images/kursk_submarine/1.jpg)


(Source: englishrussia.com/images/kursk_submarine/7.jpg)



1.3    A much smaller sub
is docked across the
Arkansas River and 
open for public visits

1.4    Altshuller worked as
            an invention inspector
            for the Soviet navy


. . . . . . Ultimately analyzed 
. . . . . . hundreds of thousands of patents 
. . . . . . to develop TRIZ 


. . . Various organizations exist, including



2. TRIZ is a compendium
    of several related
    methods and approaches




Source: http://www.amsup.com/images/triz/triz.gif
(available at http://web.archive.org/web/20120307030924/http://www.amsup.com/images/triz/triz.gif)


2.1   Let's do a quick web search on:
TRIZ

See triz.org for a video 
       (Oops! - down 3/12/2020, problematic 3/11/21, don't see 3/10/22)

Some other videos:



2.2  His analysis distills down to a limited set of problems
     Complete table is 
        39x39 engineering parameters
        40 kinds of solutions

. . . see
www.mazur.net/triz/contradi.htm
      (full table)

2.3   Example:
. . .cans

. . .want to improve parameter #4?
. . . . . ."Length of nonmoving object"
. . . . . .Why might we want that?
. . . . . .What problems might be caused?


. . .conflicts include #11:
. . . . . ."tension, pressure"
. . . . . .(wall is now weaker
. . . . . .in the middle)

. . .solutions are:
. . . . . .principles of invention:
           1, 14, 35
           (three out of the 40)

. . .principle 1:
. . . . . .Segment it
           make can shorter
           make lots of little walls
                  (corrugate it)
           put circular ridges

. . .principle 14:
. . . . . .Spheroidality
           (add curvature)
           round the edges
         
           cars use curved sheet metal
           a flat strip is very bendable!

. . .principle 35:
. . . . . .Change physical or chemical state
           use a stronger metal alloy
           use thicker & heavier sheet metal


3. More modernized tables

  • This one is more computerized
  • interior cells list engineering principles...
    • ...for resolving the conflict
  • Automated lookup interface:
      • because 40 principles of invention
      • ...in addition to the 39x39 table

4. Another example


 . . .Let's try another one together:
. . . . . .need to pick an object
. . . . . .pick a row for improvement
. . . . . .pick a column showing conflict
. . . . . .identify cell with principles
. . . . . .look up the principles of invention
. . . . . .apply them!
(for example, cell phone repairability, or battery capacity, or whatever we want)

We could break into groups of 1-2-3-4...
     Each try one
     Then report to class
          Use 
               table of improvement+conflicts
               list of principles      
         
===========================================================
Background: recall -

The table of 
39 characteristics
that may be improved
and may conflict

    . . . (see e.g.
    http://www.triz40.com/aff_Matrix_TRIZ.php)

Recall: 
What are the 
40 Principles of Invention
in TRIZ?

. . . (see e.g.
      http://www.triz40.com/aff_Principles.htm)

We considered these
     ...for resolving engineering conflicts
     ...from the table

We can also think about them 
    ....with respect to the 
        evolution of any technology. . . 


    For example:
    consider some 
    inventions that 
    have room to grow

        2022 topics:
Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work (OA)
Automation (AT)
Space Travel and Colonization (& Damage to Host Planet) (JB)
Software that Answers Questions About the Future by Processing the Weboverse (JC)
Flying Cars (CH)
Cybernetic Enhancement (BM)
Dream House (CP)
Metaverse (Virtual Environment) for Everyone (PS)
Responding to First Contact (JS)


        General topics:
        E-readers
        LED lights/lighting in general
        Smartphones
        Home robots
        Gaming devices
        or pick anything you like

(Source: http://inshadesofscarlet.blogspot.com/#!/2010/09/lightbulbs-seriously.html

We could apply various of the 40 principles to each of these

Another idea:
   Do this with 
   a device or technology 
   of specific interest 
   to each person

(Example: 
your project topic)


1) "Segmentation":
break something unitary
into parts, modules, pieces, etc.

E.g. replace large truck
with a
tractor+trailer design
(is that good?)


2) "Taking out":
remove a part


E.g. put a
noisy air compressor
outside the building
where the air is used


E.g. Use the
bark but not the dog
as part of a burglar alarm


3) "Local Quality":
make something that is
uniform, nonuniform


E.g. refrigerator with
freezer,
moist cold bin for veggies,
dry cold bin for meat, etc.


4) "Assymetry":
make something that is
symmetric, assymetric


E.g. make a round rod
have a flat part
so a knob can
turn it without slipping


5) "Merging":
assemble similar objects
into a larger assembly

E.g. make a
network of PCs


E.g. 3 wheels are
more stable than 2 are
more stable than 1


You can get
"emergent properties"!


6)"Universality":
make one thing
do more than one thing


E.g. pencil can
erase,
store,
attach
as well as write


7) "Nested Doll":
(like those Russian dolls)


E.g. set of measuring spoons


8) "Anti-weight":
counter heaviness
with flotation


E.g. non-sinking boats;
balloons;
airplane wings and
boat hydrofoils


9) "Preliminary anti-action":
counter bad effects
of good things
ahead of time


E.g. lead aprons at the dentist


E.g. slow-release medications


10) "Preliminary action":
do something to an object
before it is needed


E.g. put glue on paper before selling it




. . . Stickers!
. . . Tape!


E.g. sterilize surgical instruments
for next time - autoclaves, etc.


11) "Beforehand cushioning":
have backup systems
present in case of failure


E.g. emergency parachutes,
fire escapes,
parking brakes


12) "Equipotentiality":
compensate for gravity


E.g. spring-loaded
cafeteria dish dispenser


13) "The other way round":
reverse the action;
go upside down;
make something fixed, movable
make something movable, fixed


E.g. rotate part instead of tool;
treadmills;
escalators


14) "Spheroidality":
change from
flat or angular
surfaces
to curved


E.g. domes and arches;
ball-point pens instead of quills


15) "Dynamics":
make it
movable
or
flexible


E.g. adjustable car seats;
medical scopes in flexible tubes


16) "Partial or excessive actions":
Do a little too much or too little, then fix


E.g. put a bit too much on your plate,
then leave a little;

almost fill your tank,
then top off


17). . . . . . "Another dimension":
use the 3rd dimension or 4th, etc.


E.g. 3D TV;
add wings to car;
2-sided screen;
double toothbrush;
dump truck


18) "Mechanical vibration":
cause oscillation/vibration


E.g. electric hedge trimmer/carving knife;
gall stone destruction;
ultrasonic neurostimulation


19) "Periodic action":
keep repeating


E.g. hitting nail with hammer;
warbling siren


20) "Continuity of useful action":
eliminate breaks


E.g. night light;
auto time sharing
(zip cars)


21) "Skipping":
do it so fast
that harm is averted


E.g. flash freezing;
heated ice cream scoop


22) "Turn Lemons into Lemonade":
use bad effect
for a good purpose


E.g. make/save money
by recycling
. . . (reuse blank side; sell cans)


23) "Feedback": improve performance by examining the effects


E.g. hard to spend
UALR budgeted money
in late spring;
cruise control


24) "Intermediary": link/separate 2 things with a go-between


E.g. potholder;
nailset;
shuttle diplomacy


25) "Self-service":
something serves itself


E.g. fertilize with grass clippings;
mow the leaves instead of raking
pot liquor to improve flavor


26) "Copying":
save with inexpensive copies


E.g. VR instead of reality;
photos;
music on CD instead of live, etc.


27) "Cheap short-lived objects": throw it away afterwards


E.g. paper plates;
disposable diapers;
anyone remember returnable bottles?


28) "Mechanics substitution":
get rid of moving parts or other objects


E.g. CD instead of vinyl record
. . . (what next? After that?);
acoustic pet fence


29) "Pneumatics and hydraulics":
use gas or liquid
instead of solid parts


E.g. gel-filled footwear soles;
natural gas instead of logs


30) "Flexible shells and thin films":
get rid of heavy, solid things


E.g. paper instead of slates;
whiteboard wall covering
instead of solid slate blackboards;
balloons


31) "Porous materials": make nonporous things, porous


E.g. save weight by making it fluffier


32) "Color changes":
change color or transparency
of object or environment


E.g. use red light to
see nocturnal critters
in a zoo


E.g. use differently colored markers
for writing


33) "Homogeneity":
make interacting objects of the same material


E.g. cut diamonds
with diamond dust

E.g. make artificial organs
out of person's own cells


34) "Discarding and recovering":
it disappears or changes itself


E.g. biodegradable plastic bags;



35). . . . . . "Parameter changes":
change properties of a substance


E.g. heat food to cook/kill germs


36) "Phase transitions":


E.g. freeze liquid center,
then dip in warm chocolate

E.g. air conditioning works
by vaporizing/condensing
a liquid


37) "Thermal expansion":
things expand/contract with temperature


E.g. make thermostats that
bend and curve
as temperature changes


38) "Strong oxidants":
use oxygen-enrichment


E.g. medical use;
match heads;
rocket fuel


39) "Inert atmosphere": use chemically inactive stuff


E.g. store priceless artifacts
in argon or nitrogen


E.g. add filler
when making pills
so you can pick them up


40) "Composite materials":
use multiple materials in a substance


E.g. fiberglass;
reinforced concrete



People could work another example individually...
       Recall -
               table of improvement+conflicts
               list of principles      



3. Other aspects of TRIZ
- (can also apply to
your project topics)

. . . One aspect:
the natural evolution
from doing one key task
and "branching out"

. . . . . . first pencils wrote

            then they "branched out"

                soon they erased, too

                and clipped on

                and stored

                and didn't need sharpening

                and arguably even

                     used ink not lead

                     stored documents

                     will play videos


. . . . . . From keyboards
            to foldup keyboards,
            ergonomic keyboards,
            what other kinds?



. . . . . . How have
            cell phones
            branched out?



. . . . . . This also explains
            "bloatware"


. . . . . . Have cars branched out?


. . . . . . Can you think of
            something that
            has not
            branched out much?



4. Also from TRIZ:
usability,
aesthetics
become factors later


. . . Early cars:
"you can get any color car
you want as long as it's black"


Example, anyone?





Monday, February 6, 2012

Social Wisdom: Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets
Buying and selling a certificate worth a given amount of money if the prediction comes true, but worthless if it doesn't


Putting your 
money where
your mouth is!


People make
predictions
all the time

. . . e.g. about
      other peoples'
      reactions

. . . . . . ability to predict
            the effect of
            your actions on others
            is useful

. . . . . . you need a
           "theory of mind"

. . . . . . you're in a
            game theory
            scenario

. . . . . . data suggests
            competition within groups
            may be a major cause of
            human brain size


Human brain. Credits: Patrick J. Lynch, medical illustrator; C. Carl Jaffe, MD, cardiologist. Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/




Chimpanzee brain. Credits: Gaetan Lee; tilt corrected by Kaldari. Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/



. . . . . . this is the
            social competition theory
            of human brain genesis
           (ref.: Bailey & Geary,
           Hominid Brain Evolution:
           Testing Climatic,
           Ecological, and Social Competition
           Models
           Human Nature,
           vol. 20, no. 1,
           Mar. 2009, pp. 67-79.)


. . . . . . so the need to predict
            may explain
            why we're human!
            (Predict what?)



Prediction is
important in 
other areas too

Consider
the weather:


Credits:
Don Amaro from
Madeira Islands,
Portugal,
upload by Herrick
17:17, 4 December 2007 (UTC).
Http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/


Waterspout.
Credits: http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/bigs/wea00308.jpg.
1969 September 10.
Photographer: Dr. Joseph Golden,
NOAA. Public domain.

Two images of Hurricane Irma














. . . The National Weather Service (NWS)
       is a large, highly technical
       gov't agency devoted to
             ~ prediction ~
       using large computers, etc.
. . . It's not perfect
      but it's
      much better than nothing

. . . weather prediction
      uses computers

. . . . . . other kinds of
            prediction can use
            other methods



Crowdsourcing group wisdom...

     Horse race betting
     is an example

Source: https://www.greatfallstribune.com/story/news/2019/12/09/montana-horse-racing-board-pays-628-k-debt-state-early/2630053001

           Bet right, you win $

           Bet wrong, you lose $ 
  
           But if you win, how much $?

                It depends on how much was bet on what horse!

                A crowd-sourced estimate of the odds

                A kind of prediction market

Pari-mutuel betting is typical

Take all $ bet on any horse

Divide it up among bets on the winning horse

From that algorithm you can calculate odds etc.

---

For "place" bets, take all place bets

Divide half among bets on the 1st place horse

Divide other half among bets on the 2nd place horse 

---

For "show" bets, take all place bets

Divide 1/3 among bets on the 1st place horse

Divide 1/3 among bets on the 2nd place horse 

Divide 1/3 among bets on the 3rd place horse 

 

               

           Other sports betting odds are set ahead of time

               Traditionally by bookies in a back room
  
               Experts combining opinions

                   But not using Delphi method

                   Would it work better if they used Delphi method?


Prediction Market

     Stock market:

         Buy if expect it to go up
         Were you right? Make $
         Were you wrong? Lose $

        Stock market is a kind of...

        Prediction Market
       
            Other ways of 
            looking at the
            stock market

                What are they?




     An example from the history of this course

     . . . Will the
     average global temperature
     for 2012
     be the highest 
     ever recorded?


     . . . at 12:23 on the afternoon before class (Sp '12):
     you could have bought a "yes"
     for $2.50 from intrade.com
     . . . if you ended up right -
           you'd get $10
     . . . if wrong -
           you'd lose your $2.50

    What ultimately happened?



















        Jan 16, 2013:

       NASA: 2012 Was 
            9th Hottest Year 
            on Record

As of early 2020:





Let's go to 
intrade.com 
and check it out



Here are/were some other prediction markets:


Ok, here's another problem 
with prediction markets

    People might bet 
    for other reasons 
    than to make $

        Why might someone do that?







Bet on something you don't want to happen

  • If it happens anyway, you'll feel better!


Hedge a financial loss by betting it will happen

  • Stock market might decline 
    • So, buy a bet that it will!
  • Purely personal issues would not work
    • Why not?



Manipulate odds to affect reality

Can you think of 
a possible example?

       Example:
       Manipulate press coverage 
       of a presidential election

             It's been done!


             It's expensive!
             Why do it?


Why should Intrade
prediction contracts
get closer to
$10 or $0,
PredictIt contracts
get closer to $1 or $0,
LR  Prediction Company* contracts
get closer to $100 or $0, 
etc.,
as they approach
resolution?

*???
 
Could price ever get
high, then end up low
(or vice versa)?

We started calling them "bets" ...

        But technically it's a "prediction market contract"

  • It's still a bet!
 


5. More about sports prediction markets

Tim Henman
serving at Wimbledon, 2005.
Credits: Photo by Spiralz, license by http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/

. . . Sports betting has
       a long history


 . . . People want to
       predict games
       
       They'll pay
       good money
       to do it!

. . . A theoretically ideal
      "honest bookmaker"
      will not expect to make a profit



. . . . . The $$ bet are 
          merely redistributed


. . . (But how do
      real bookmakers
      differ from that?)

. . . . . This is how horse racing works


6. Political prediction...

. . .During election season,
     media and candidates
     all try to
     predict outcomes


. . . Some of it
      you don't hear about


. . . polling,
      trend analysis,
      sociological analysis
      are big

      . . . but why is
      asking people
      their opinion
      unreliable?


. . . predictions markets
      have been claimed
      to do it better!

. . . But they aren't perfect

  • Manipulation can skew results
  • People can buy predictions "irrationally"
    • Example: 2012 election


7. About corporate stocks...


. . . . . . The stock market
            is a
            "leading economic indicator"


. . . . . . (Economists pay
            special attention to
            leading indicators)

. . . . . . Is the stock market
            a prediction market?



8. If someone
asked you
to invent a way
to collect
group predictive wisdom,
what might you come up with?



. . . Maybe a
      Delphi-like method


. . . Probably (?) not
      prediction markets

. . . . . .However, by accident,
           horse racing is in that direction


. . . . . . An early design for
            prediction markets
            appears in
            The Shockwave Rider,
            by John Brunner, 1975


. . . . . . His term was Delphi Pool


. . . . . . General idea:
            when real money
            is at stake, 
            people predict better

                  Do you agree?



9. Terrorism and
    prediction markets


. . . . . . DARPA's PAM
            (Policy Analysis Market)
            permitted a
            prediction market
            for terrorist attacks

. . . . . . It worked like this:
            How much would you pay
            to get $100 if there is a
            snowstorm tomorrow?
            Trick 1: buy a snowstorm prediction cheap
                 Make a snowstorm happen, then collect $100
            Similarly for a terrorist attack
            Trick 2: watch for terrorism contracts
                 Arrest them first


. . . . . . Does that
            sound like
            a good idea
            to you?

. . . . . . How might it 
            help fight terrorism?










+ we might have forwarning

- terrorists might
  buy predictions, then
  make them come true
  to make $$$!


. . . . . . In 2003,
            2 senators found out,
            PAM was cancelled, and
            a DARPA
            program director resigned


. . . . . . . . . not clear if
                  terrorism predictions
                  were ever traded



10. As time allows, 
let's 

      - try our own prediction market!    

               Prediction market contract:
                       see syllabus

About how to do it, as well as some of the finer points: 
     The rational participant would be willing to buy a contract for a little less than the probability of the event occurring (and thus paying off), and sell for a little more than that probability. For example if the event was a six resulting from a roll of a fair die, it would be worth buying a contract for that for $16 and selling one for $17 for a contract worth $100 (since the probability of the event is 16.67%). 
     To create new contracts, it works for the broker to simply lend out blank contracts for free; if the event later occurs the person taking one would have to then pay the broker $100, and if the event does not occur the contract is worthless and the broker is not paid anything.  
     It is an interesting point that the originator has a different risk
exposure. So they would demand a risk premium, suggesting that the
price should decline a bit over time, not because of any changes in
probabilities in the domain of the contract, but just as an artifact
of the origination risk. As the broker and proprietor of the "Little
Rock Prediction Market Co." I get to make the rules and I made them to
be useful in an in-class simulated prediction market. In a normal
semester we would be buying and selling them every week until the end
of the semester (or the event the contracts are about occurs,
whichever happens first). Then at the end of the semester I'd show a
graph of the price over time, and send everyone an email explaining
how much money they won or lost.
    I could of course make bad rules, and in that case the rational
market player would play to win, leading to prices that do not reflect
the underlying probabilities. 
    A similar origination problem might occur with real prediction
markets - somehow the market must be primed with new contracts, and
how are they to be priced? If there are lots and lots of buyers
compared to the number of contracts, the contracts could just be sold
to the highest bidders. I can't do that in class because there aren't
enough students and also because it would be confusing to many people.
Another problem like this occurs with stock IPOs - the initial price
is just a guess (I think? Or maybe it is manipulated to be too low so
that the first purchasers have a better chance of cleaning up?) and
the price can then swing wildly at first, exposing early buyers to
increased risk. Another situation like that is when a prediction
market reaches its end. If it rapidly becomes clear what the outcome
is, the people still holding the contracts won't be able to buy and
sell them fast enough to track the events on the ground, exposing them
to the same kind of increased risk. In an extreme case, suppose the
contracts were about the outcome of a roll of the dice. The outcome
goes from pure chance to completely settled in an instant, exposing
late buyers to increased risk.
    Another aspect to the market as designed for this course is it
accommodates uncertainty about the probability. For example, you might
not be confident of your estimate of 20% probability, but more
comfortable guessing that it is somewhere between 20% and 50%. Then
you would be willing to buy for $19 and sell for $51. If you were more
risk-tolerant, you might reason that the real probability is more
likely to be somewhere in the middle region than very near 20% or 50%,
so you might then be willing to buy for $25 and sell for $45, if
needed in order to execute a transaction.

Disclaimer: 
Using gen-u-ine, real $10 bills would make this a very memorable learning experience. Thus, it would have educational benefit! Nevertheless, we will only pretend, because this course wishes to avoid a legal minefield of potential complications.


Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Delphi Methods (ii)



1. Finish Hands-on Delphi Method if needed

Recall the process


. . . each student
will extract the
wisdom of the group
by using
the Delphi Method


. . . (I will help as needed)

. . . Each person will also
      have a chance
      to be the recorder

. . . What are the steps?


Let's finish using the
    Delphi Method
    now . . .

. . . each person gets 
      a turn to lead it

. . . I'll help at the board

. . . each person will also 
      get to be a recorder

. . . recorder gives the 
      results to the leader

. . . leader keeps results 
      for a HW problem 




Before we start
   

Recall from last time:

(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)

But what if the # responses is not divisible by 4?

   . . . What should we do?

   . . . Conceptually:
         If there were millions of data points
         What would be the range of the middle half?
         Think about it!
         If time, could be an in-class exercise






Source: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html


. . . Entire books
      have been written on
      the Delphi Method



2. Let's reflect a bit . . .
We're doing it for practice

. . . how would doing it
      "professionally"
      differ?


. . . and what are the
      "so whats?" of
      these differences?


Consider:

"How social influence can undermine 

        the wisdom of crowd effect" 

(2011)


. . . Groups can give better estimates that individuals

. . . Expert estimates can be inferior to group medians (Galton, 1907)

But on the other hand:

. . . Crowd-sourced wisdom can go wrong

. . . Group dynamics can reduce group wisdom

. . . Examples?

. . . They did 5 rounds of re-estimates 

. . . . . . (we're doing 2)

. . . . . . Knowing others' estimates reduces range of estimates

. . . . . . . . . This can reduce quality of crowd estimates

. . . "Social influence effect":

. . . . . . reduces range without increasing accuracy

. . . . . . groups can converge without improving

. . . . . . how to minimize this problem?

. . .  "Range reduction effect":

. . . . . . true value moves to the edge of the range

. . . . . . sounds like the social influence effect but worse

. . . . . . how to minimize this problem?

. . . "Confidence effect":

. . . . . . increases confidence in, but not accuracy of, estimates

. . . . . . how to minimize this problem?

So how to do the Delphi Method so as to actually get group wisdom?



3. Ambiguity in the question
- another important issue



. . .we've noticed
     this problem

     Recall a
     well-known
     example:

     Often, public parks
     have rules

    The rules try to
    make them fun
    for everyone


. . . The Greenway Park
      Community Board
      met and proposed
      this rule:













. . . What does this
      really say . . . 
      - and how can we fix it??