The singularity

Recall the movie Transcendent Man

. . . What is your overall opinion?


















. . . What are Kurzweil's achievements?

. . . Is he a nice guy?

. . . Is he healthy?

. . . What is his opinion on the 4 curves?

. . . . . . linear

. . . . . . exponential

. . . . . . S

. . . . . . plateau

. . . What is his relationship to his father?

. . . . . . goals?

. . . . . . importance?

. . . . . . suppose someone made a movie about you

. . . . . . . . .would it feature your father as much?

. . . Is the movie Transcendence based somehow on this movie?

. . . . . .Let's check the trailer and decide






Ray Kurzweil is also  

. . . an inventor 

. . . author of 

. . . . . . The Singularity is Near

. . . . . . . . . Penguin Books, 2005

. . . . . . and some other books

. . . a Singularitarian

. . . co-founder of Singularity University




Singularitarians (and Singularitarianism)

. . . Related movements include

. . . . . . Transhumanism

. . . . . . Extropianism

. . . . . . Immortalism

. . . Singularitarians hold that

. . . . . . a general technological singularity will happen

. . . . . . specifically, an AI singularity will happen 

(like in Vernor Vinge's article)

. . . . . . it will happen soon "enough"

. . . . . . . . . that means it will affect you

. . . . . . . . . (perhaps not me)

. . . . . . . . . Kurzweil estimates 2045

. . . . . . we should take action, therefore

. . . . . . . . . try to make it good!

. . . . . . . . . . . . since it could perhaps be bad

. . . . . . . . . . . . How? Why? Is it possible?

. . . Are the Singularitarians right?

. . . Anyone here thinking of signing up?


















. . . Some people think singularitarianism is like a religion

. . . Kurzweil thinks it is a quantifiable result of existing trends

. . . . . . About 2045!

. . . Kurzweil co-founded Singularity University



. . . . . . Let's take a look...

. . . . . . The S-curve is Singularity University's worst nightmare

. . . . . . There is significant risk in "putting all your eggs in one basket"

. . . . . . What if you assume exponential change will solve the worlds problems and...

. . . . . . . . . you hit an S-curve? 

. . . . . . . . . Oops - woulda, coulda, shoulda...





More on the Singularity


Or maybe, "The Singularities"



Roots of the concept


. . .Physics and math


Mathematics can be "undefined"


. . .ever see "NaN"?

. . .you might divide by 0, for example




Singularities in physics


. . .Consider the relationship among mass, size & density


. . . . . .Gas is a familiar example


. . . . . . . . .Balloons


. . . . . . . . . . . .Volume of breath vs. volume of balloon


. . . . . . . . .Tires


. . . . . . . . . . . .Pumping a tire


. . . . . . . . . . . .Volume of pump vs. volume of bike tire


. . . . . . . . . . . .Changing volume of airspace in pump


. . . . . .Solids work somewhat similarly!

. . . . . .What is the expression for density?


. . . . . .The center of a black hole in space




An Economic Singularity


Labor: 


. . .How much labor does it take to make a loaf of bread?


. . .A car?


. . .Food for a person for a day?


What happens if required labor reaches zero?

. . .How might this happen?


A crucial fact is:


. . .More labor needed for more stuff


. . . . . .no longer true!


. . . . . .What happens then?


. . . This connects to the mincome concept

. . . . . . Good idea? 

. . . . . . What could happen? 

Does this relate to any of our project topics?

Technological singularity

Let's look at a few graphs:

. . .images.google.com


. . .query: kurzweil graphs


Does this relate to any of our project topics?





The AI singularity


I. J. Good (mathematician):


. . ."Speculations concerning the first ultraintelligent machine" 


. . . . . .in Franz L. Alt and Morris Rubinoff, editors, 
. . . . . .Advances in Computers, 
. . . . . .vol. 6 (1965), pp. 31-88. 
. . . . . .Available on the Web.


Vernor Vinge (sci-fi writer and ex-CS prof.):


. . ."The coming technological singularity: 
      how to survive in the post-human era"


. . . . . .NASA technical report CP-10129 (1993) 
. . . . . .and Whole Earth Review(Winter 1993). 
. . . . . .Available on the Web

     Vinge's "Technological Singularity"


. . .See Vinge quote in his wikipedia article, etc. 


. . . Kurzweil's turning on the universe

. . . . . . intelligent self-propagation in the limit

     Are there any risks? 
          See e.g. www.stoptherobots.org (archive: goo.gl/kPIzn7)





How will we know if a computer is intelligent?






. . .Turing Test


. . .Yearly Loebner Prize competitions

. . . . . . What's the deal currently?

. . .Xprize competitions





The life span singularity


Most closely associated with Aubrey de Grey


. . .see images.google.com




"Escape velocity" concept


. . .Does it work??


. . . . . .We could try simulating it...



Singularity University

. . . http://singularityu.org/

. . . . . . Devoted to the technological singularity

. . . . . . . . . (What was that again?)

Do the technologies below relate to our project topics?

. . . . . . Exponentially improving technologies include

. . . . . . . . .Energy

. . . . . . . . . . . .Only one is high-exponential!

. . . . . . . . .Biotech (esp. genetics)

. . . . . . . . . . . .Carlson curves

. . . . . . . . .Computing (esp. AI & robotics)

. . . . . . . . . . . .What "law" is most famous?

. . . . . . . . . . . .AI has its own special singularity

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Robotics contest: RoboCup

. . . . . . . . .Nanotech & fabrication

. . . . . . . . .Let's check the web for some 
                 graphs and such for these 
                 exponentially improving technologies

      NOTE: we're not talking just exponential, but high-exponential

      Software productivity per programmer hour 
      is exponential too, 
      but low-exponential



Exercise: 

In small groups:

Take your topics (or any topic) & discuss:

. . . Where will it be in 5 years?

. . . 10 years?

. . . 20 years?

. . . 50 years?

. . . 100 years?

. . . 200 years?

. . . 1,000 years?

. . . 10,000 years?

. . . Report to the class


"Tastes Like the Singularity, But Less Filling"

    The first name of...

   Chapter fifteen in...
   The Human Race to the Future

Chapter Fifteen

Tastes Like the Singularity

Some think the world as we know it will soon end, ushering in an unimaginable (but hopefully utopian) future. This chapter explains why it is called the “singularity,” and why it’s exciting. Will it radically transform the fabric of reality?

If the artificial intelligence singularity happens, the world will soon thereafter find itself under the sway of entities much smarter tha­­­­­­­n ourselves. Then things will be, as J. B. S. Haldane put it in 1928, “not only queerer than we suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.”¹ We will be no more able to understand, outwit, or control an entity much smarter than ourselves than a cow can a person. At least that’s the theory. The counterpoint is the claim that for humans to aspire to build a robot more intelligent than ourselves is impossibly absurd, like for a monkey to aspire to reach the Moon by climbing a tree. But who is to say that no monkey has ever tried?

Singularities

A singularity is a particularly dramatic type of situation in which a mathematical description stops working. For example, suppose we describe some unknown quantity x using the equation x/2=5. Then x=10, because then 10/2=5. No singularity or anything else unusual there. And if the ‘2’ decreases, x gets bigger. But what if it decreases to 0? Then we have x/0=5, and there is no solution for x because ordinary arithmetic does not say what happens if you divide by zero. The value of x in this case is said to be “undefined.” More generally, when what you are dividing by becomes zero, whether it is money on line 54 of the infamous Connecticut 2008 income tax form CT-1040,² volume of the mass at the center of a black hole, or whatever it may be, you’ve encountered a singularity, and there is no answer. Connecticut tax authorities might take a dim view of the matter, but astrophysicists are concerned: It is thought that inside a black hole, the gravitational field forces everything inside the event horizon into a dot at the center. Since calculating density requires dividing by volume (density = mass/volume), the density of matter at the center of a black hole would be undefined if the volume truly became zero, thus creating a singularity. Luckily for reality, physics has proposed theories, like quantum gravity, that avoid this mathematical modeling problem by allowing volume to get very small while preventing it from becoming precisely zero.

The AI singularity

Somewhat similarly, the AI singularity occurs when the attempt to calculate the limits of computer intelligence breaks down, seemingly predicting an unending spiral toward infinite intelligence. However, truly infinite intelligence can’t happen anymore than a misguided Connecticut resident could have made the entire state financial infrastructure go “poof!” in 2008 by trying to fill out line 53 without having any Connecticut adjusted gross income. Similarly, there is something very strange at the center of a black hole, but it is real even if we don’t yet know exactly what it is.

Singularities are properties of defective descriptions of the real phenomena, not of real phenomena themselves. For the AI singularity, the real phenomenon involves computers getting steadily more powerful. They will come to outpace human intelligence in more and more ways. Computers have long exceeded our intelligence in speed and reliability of arithmetic calculation. They can play chess better. They can play Jeopardy! better. Each new generation of modern computers can only be designed with the help of previous generations of computers. This process will continue but there will never be a moment when computers suddenly become smarter than humans and take over, because intelligence is seemingly so complex and indefinable a concept that no single satisfactory measure of it exists, or perhaps can exist, and therefore there can be no clean line of demarcation between less intelligent, and more intelligent, than humans.

Thus we won’t wake up one day to find our previously loved machines suddenly informing us, as the notorious Japanese video game Zero Wing put it, “All your base are belong to us.”³ But the trends do suggest that they are gaining greater and greater intelligence and influence on our lives, perhaps eventually with revolutionary results.

So what is intelligence and how can we tell if computers have it? The tricky question of properly defining and measuring intelligence does not seem to be solvable. At least, it hasn’t been solved yet. Nonetheless, it is obvious that intelligence exists and that some people have more of it than others. The classical approach to defining when computers have intelligence is the so-called Turing Test, created by British code breaker and war hero Alan Turing.⁴ (Turing was long thought to have later committed suicide by eating a poisoned apple, like Snow White, after being convicted of homosexuality and then “treated” with hormone injections in accordance with the British legal process of the time. However the detailed cause of death is now in dispute.)

In essence the Turing Test says that, in a keyboard chat session, if one can’t tell whether one is texting with a chatbot or a person, and it is a chatbot, the chatbot should be considered intelligent. This is a clever idea, though not perfect:

• One problem is its assumption that writing intelligent-seeming text messages actually requires intelligence. Maybe it doesn’t.
• Another is that people must be able to tell the difference between text messages produced by intelligent vs. non-intelligent entities. Maybe they can’t. For example, in 2014 a chatbot called “Eugene Goostman” posed as a 13-year old speaker of English as a second language and, many believe, passed the Turing Test. However no one seriously claims the bot is actually intelligent.
• A third is that it ignores the possibility that a computer could be intelligent yet still unable to pass the test, somewhat like a person not fluent in your language, though intelligent, would be unable to pretend fluency.

Turing Test considered harmful

The first chatbot was the 1967 program ELIZA.⁵ J. Weizenbaum, its creator, wrote, “ELIZA created the most remarkable illusion of having ‘understood’ in the minds of the many people who conversed with it.”⁶ ELIZA is probably too primitive to have that effect on today’s much more sophisticated computer users and does not pass the Turing Test (it’s been tried). Yet the Turing Test is useful and has inspired a regular contest. Since 1991 the “Loebner Prize”⁷ has been awarded yearly to the owner of the chatbot contestant that comes closest to fooling a panel of human judges. As a side note, AI pioneer Marvin Minsky is on record as offering a $100 cash prize to anyone who can get Loebner to stop sponsoring the “stupid … obnoxious and unproductive” prize.⁸ For his part, Loebner (a single gentleman and advocate of legalized prostitution) argues this actually makes Minsky a co-sponsor of the prize, since he would have to give his cash offering to the owner of the first chatbot to fully pass the test, finally winning Loebner’s Grand Prize and thereby ending the annual competitions.

The Turing test is clearly suspect on logical grounds alone (as explained above), and most anyone working on chatbots will confirm that, in practice, they don’t consider their impressive creations to be truly intelligent. But that is likely to change at some point. Chatbot performance appears to be generally improving from year to year, so progress is occurring. Indeed, the winner’s performance in the Loebner Prize competitions over time would appear to be one way to measure progress in computer intelligence. Although not a perfect metric, it is an interesting one.

Other metrics exist as well, also imperfect but very different from chatbot performance and from each other. One measures a computer’s creativity (http://goo.gl/7pkwJp). Game playing is another fruitful source of potential ways to measure improvements in computer abilities that seem to require intelligence, because games tend to provide a clear context that supports quantifying performance. Progressively increasing computer chess performance had already won the world championship years ago, in 1997.⁹ Soccer is different from chess, but robots compete in soccer in the robocup games, held yearly since 1997. Their soccer performance represents another metric for intelligence.

A trajectory of improvement in a composite of different tasks indicative of computer intelligence is more convincing than one of improvement in any one metric, in part because intelligence itself is such a complex, composite attribute. A useful approach might be to keep a running count of human games that machines are able to play better than humans. Chess and Jeopardy! are already there, but soccer is not. (Hopeful robocup organizers however have a goal to, “By the year 2050, develop a team of fully autonomous humanoid robots that can win against the human world soccer champion team.”¹⁰)

What we can do

The AI singularity will not rear up overnight, instantly changing your life dramatically for either the worse or, as riskily assumed by some, the better. Every age has its messianic movements and its rapturous apocalypticists. Still, AI does appear to be improving. Computers are already far in advance of human arithmetic intelligence, and society has leveraged that into many benefits, from calculators to income tax software to spacecraft navigation systems and more. This will continue to happen with other computer capabilities. Thus the number of such capabilities that exceed human performance, such as mishap-free motor vehicles, will grow progressively.

Popular movies have long relied on the concept of a secretive and misanthropic “mad scientist” who creates a robot of great capabilities. That will probably not happen. It takes a sizeable community of skilled humans to create even a pencil. Referring to everything from chopping trees for the body to making rubber and metal for the eraser, L. E. Read notes in his classic essay I, pencil, “… not a single person on the face of this Earth knows how to make me.”¹¹ Even the simplest computer is obviously far more complex than a pencil. For a robot to create another robot of greater capability than itself would require either large numbers of humans and other computers to help, just as it does now, or a single robot with the intelligence, motor skills, and financial resources of thousands of humans and their computers, factories, banks, etc. How many thousands? There is no way to know for sure. But consider that human societies of thousands, once isolated, have lost even basic pre-industrial technologies.¹² Tasmania is a well-known example.

An important need is for metrics that can tell us, in practical terms, the rate of progress by which artificial intelligence is marinating society. Arithmetic, the Turing Test, chess, Jeopardy!, soccer, and even self-driving cars are interesting but do not fit the bill by themselves. As factors in a richer, composite metric, however they can play a part. Another factor that might be useful is to count the rate of new AI applications becoming available over time. A suitable composite metric should be debated and converged upon by society.

   

Will we find other intelligent life?

Background


         The beginnings of 
     belief in 
     extraterrestrial intelligence


     Can you think of 
     any early example?




















Many religions!


     For example:


     God is intelligent


         ...and everywhere


    "Everywhere" 
    must include 
    interstellar space





A tale of two Well(e)s


    Novel written in 1898 by H.G. Wells
          Here are some 
          more interesting covers



    It inspired an 
    Orson Welles radio show

                    The show was broadcast

          Halloween, 1938

          What happened?

Intelligent Martians was a widespread concept


     1800s:


           Percival Lowell and the canals


           Numerous novels


          See
          "Imagining Mars: a Literary History"
          (by R. Crossley)


     1900s:

        1912: Edgar Rice Burroughs 
        "A Princess of Mars"


             The princess had 
             beautiful green (of course!) hair
             ..and so on


    2000s: 

        2012: Story back in the news again


            Why?





Let's move to more technical approaches



Fermi Paradox


     (Enrico Fermi
     was a 
     renowned physicist)

             Italian-born American physicist (1901-1953)

      Awarded Nobel prize 1938

      Considered a father of the atomic bomb

      Died of cancer
      (possibly due to radiation exposure)


     His "paradox":

        Over 100 billion stars 
        in our galaxy,
        the Milky Way


        Roughly (very) 
        there are 
        100 billion
        to 1 trillion
        galaxies

    So how many stars in the universe?


      What fraction have planets?

           What fraction have 
           Earth-like planets?

                 These are called
                 "Earth analogs"

                      1.4 - 2.7%

                      Do pictures exist 
                      of a few of them?                       


     So why no sign of intelligent life?
         (Er, except here)


    That's the "Fermi Paradox"!





So....
1) Why no sign of intelligent life?
         . . . and . . .
2) Will that change?












Fish supposedly live in the ocean


If you fill a cup at the beach...
...where are the fish?






Drake Equation

N=R  x  fp  x  ne  x  fl  x  fi  x  fc  x  L


N:  # advanced civilizations 
     in Milky Way with which
     we could communicate
R:  new stars formed per year
fp:  fraction of stars with planets
ne:  Suitable planets per star with planets
fl:   Fraction of suitable planets that do develop life
fi:   Fraction of those planets that develop intelligence
fc:  Fraction of intelligent civilizations that are detectable
L:  Length of time civilizations are detectable



N=R  x  fp  x  ne  x  fl  x  fi  x  fc  x  L
Suppose R is 10/year
Let's estimate the others ourselves!
Note: estimate of 100 billion Earth-like planets in Milky Way as of 2013
   Then what is N?


   Why no little green men (or whatever)?




   Crop circles, UFOs, what other evidence?




   How could we 
   communicate with
   extraterrestrial beings?




Possible problem: 
     we can't communicate with dolphins
     (for example)
     and they're
     right here on Earth!




How to find extraterrestrial life


    (Intelligent or otherwise)


    Find planets


    How to do that?


    Find oxygen


    Why so important?


    Detect radio waves, etc.




Discovering Earth-like planets


    Zero extra-solar planets 
    were known when 
   you were born


   They are being discovered 
   (at an increasing rate)


   First ones were huge and hot


   We are getting better 
   at finding more 
   Earth-like ones


   Here are three:


   Gliese 667 Cc


   Gliese:
       from "Gliese Catalog of Nearby Stars"


   Gliese 667:
       A triple star
       all of them small
   
   Gliese 667 C:
       Star C of Gliese 667


       37% of Sun's mass
       42% of Sun's radius
       1.4% of Sun's brightness
  
    Should last a lot longer than the Sun!


   Gliese 667 Cc
       2nd planet of Gliese 667
       3.9x mass of Earth
       Orbits Gliese 667 every 4 Earth weeks
           Imagine what the year is like
       Its star would be 
       2.3x as wide in the sky 
       as the Sun
         ...but dimmer per unit area
         ...reddish, since cooler than Sun
         ...temperature should allow liquid water
         ...do photos exist?



         ...well artists' impressions do
         ...let's check!
         ...only 22.1 light-years away
           (oops)


Gliese 581:
    Red dwarf star
    Might not exist
       But it might!
    Gliese 581 g is a planet
    Roughly 4x Earth mass
    Tidally locked to star
         That is a problem (why?)








         A thick atmosphere could solve the problem
             What would it be like there?
    




   Gliese 370 b
       Another interesting planet
       wikipedia, etc., has artist's impression
       Also called HD 85512 b
              (we use nicknames, so why not?)
       At least 3x Earth mass
       Gravity 1.4x Earth (at least)
       What would that feel like?
       May have liquid water
           Temperature depends on
           various unknowns
    

Transit: people on the move

Transit: People on the Move

Transportation: 
. . . moving whatever

Transit: 
. . . moving people

Future of transit:

    One of the few areas in which 
    the US has a serious 
    longer-term planning effort

    In central Arkansas:
        http://metroplan.org
                 630 Monorail Concept: 
                     http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqB8RwnmZb4


        http://imaginecentralarkansas.org/
                         A product of metroplan.org


Some ways to organize transit discussion

. . .  small to big 

. . . . . . e.g. roller skates to cruise ship

. . . # people

. . . . . . personal transit to ... what?

. . . distance

. . . . . . What to what?

. . . speed


. . . . . . What to what?

. . . impact on society

. . . . . . for example:
. . . . . . (2016) let's list your topics on the board
. . . . . . . . . then refer to them as appropriate as we go along

Methods of transit

For as long as people have existed

. . . we have needed to go places 

. . . let's discuss past, current, & future methods


For each way to organize from the previous slide
. . .list past, current, & future methods
For each method
. . .how do our project topics relate to each?
For each method
. . .what substitutions are possible?
. . . . . .see substitutions slides below as needed
For each future method
. . .answer the "...other questions" below





Substitutes for Walking

. . . walking

. . . unicycles (see images)

. . . . . . unicycle of the future:

. . . . . . . . . solowheel!
                  short video


. . . bikes

. . . . . . what will bikes of the future be like?

. . . . . . . . . let's figure it out

. . . . . . . . . then let's check the web

. . . . . . . . . . . . images.google.com

. . . . . . . . . . . . general web search

. . . scooters

. . . . . . wheels front-and-back

. . . . . . wheels side-to-side

. . . . . . . . . Segway

. . . . . . which has more future potential?

. . . . . . what will be the scooter of the future?


. . . trikes

. . . . . . will they displace bikes?

. . . . . . . . . what will trikes of the future be like?

. . . . . . . . . . . . let's think first, then check the web


. . . pedibuses

. . . . . . Do they have a future?


. . . roller skates

. . . . . . from traditional to rollerblades

. . . . . . . . . (check online pics to see?)

. . . . . . Skates of the future?

. . . . . . Basically, shoes of the future!



. . . skateboards

. . . . . . Skateboards of the future?



Substitutes for Horses

. . . horse

. . . future of horses?


. . . cars

. . . . . . horses are mobile

. . . . . . cars are "auto-mobile"

. . . . . . . . . "auto" means "self"

. . . . . . so what is an autoautomobile?




. . . . . . Will self-driving cars differ from today's cars?






. . . . . . . . . fewer of them needed, personal ownership not needed, use garage and $ for other things, Uber et al. could use, municipalities could replace bus fleets, commuting could become less problematic, use your car as a cab while you sleep or work, prices lower (why?), ...



. . . hovercraft

. . . . . . Why might hovercraft become important in the future?










. . . . . . . . . roads could just be flat grass strips: cheaper!

. . . . . . . . . what if hovercraft happen?



. . . jet packs (1, 2)

. . . . . . we could check youtube also


. . . small planes?

. . . . . .  is there a future there?


. . . rocket ships?

. . . . . . multiple pilots works better

. . .  how about flying cars?

. . . . . . check youtube for examples

. . . . . . is there a future there?


. . . autogyro?

. . . . . . check wikipedia/whatever for definition

. . . . . . check youtube to see them in action

. . . . . . is there a future here?



. . . helicopter?

. . . . . . is there a future for them?



What are the future prospects for substituting for these?

. . . powered parachutes
. . . trains
. . . subways
. . . buses
. . . spaceships
. . . moving sidewalks
. . . escalators
. . . elevators
. . . planes
. . . boats
. . . evacuated tube transport
. . . . . . e.g. a hyperloop
. . . . . . . . . (do web search)
. . . shoes that produce electricity
. . . tiny robocars with telepresence function
. . . current telepresence bots



Some other questions to ask about these


What would change for you if each of these took hold?

. . . quality of life?

. . . privacy? 

. . . security?

. . . career impacts?

. . . what else?

. . . how have these things impacted the past?

. . . what other possibilities for future impacts?

What about other people?

What about businesses, governments...?

What about society as a whole?

Earth 2100 Discussion

(Takes 150+ minutes even without the science discussion)


Earth 2100 Discussion Questions

Let's finish the movie as needed first

In small group(s) as appropriate:

How would you
rate or critique
the movie as 

a movie?
 










      Should we all become
      "preppers"
      (survivalists)?




Story starts in 2009
   How has the movie's predictions,
   since 2009,
   tracked reality so far?






Here are some observations on this 
    - 2021: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg works.

The time-tagged discussion notes below are illustrative, but old. New notes based on the current state of the world will be taken by the instructor in real time as we view the movie. The notes on the Deltawerken (Delta Works) however have enduring currency.

2012 (4:45-5:30 ): "... and we recycled": How is that going?

2014: Dragonflies land in Miami instead of Cuba. Did something like that happen?

2015 (6:47-7:20, 8:00-8:30): Oil running out, shortages, high prices - did that happen? Devastating hurricane occurs - did that happen? Climate agreement required by then to avoid serious outcome - what happened there? China and India sink the agreement - what is the actual situation? 

2016: Gas prices going higher, tundra thawing, 8 billion people, shortages & high prices "normal" - what was the actual situation?

2030: Worldwide water stress. Realistic?

2060: All cars electric. New viral pandemic. Realistic?

2070: Sea levels up 3 feet. Realistic?

2100: Widespread disintegration; a national entity doesn't seem to exist any more. Could that happen? There is actually a way to mathematically analyze the probability of this.

(9:40-10:05): Disruptive innovation from artificial meat:

Like grid parity for PV, there is "meat parity"

(26:07- ): This is unlikely but appeals to our worst fears.

(28:01-29:30): The worst mass extinction was recently theorized to be by proliferation of methanosarcina organisms which took advantage of previously unusable organic substance buildup. We are the first to take advantage of an analogous resource as well: information. So maybe we are like the methanosarcina, and the 62 million year cycle continues...

(32:40-33:37): Famous example, but with a fatal flaw pointed out in the book Questioning Collapse

(36:00-36:18): "...and a few books": what is wrong with this picture?

(38:07-38:23): Remember "grid parity"? I think 2050 is too pessimistic for this scene!

(41:11-42:00): See Greensburg in Wikipedia (article mentions Earth 2100). But this concept of small self-sufficient communities is attractive to some but problematic and unnecessary as well as economically regressive.

(45:30-45:45): Ties into technology decreasing in cost, also ties into grid parity. What we need: spray-on solar power paint. Solar power in a spray can.

(46:55-46:15): Well, 2009 was before self-driving cars were invented...

(46:35-46:48): the self-sufficient commune idea again. Arkansas was a popular destination for that a few decades ago. But what about agbots and such, which were not well developed or visible in 2009?

(51:40- ): The whole methane thing is reminiscent of the methanosarcina-induced mass extinction long ago. Methane is still a biologically untapped energy resource even now!

(53:50- ): What do you think of geoengineering solutions? We could check the proposals online...

(55:11- ): The concept of destroying the ozone layer has a precedent: freon.

(56:40- ): The barrier design is wrong. The Netherlands has had a working sea gate for decades. Holland is below sea level. The Dutch gov't made a sea wall after a disaster several decades ago.

One proposal is to copy the Dutch storm surge barrier
 http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/11/hurricane_proofing_new_york_city_dutch_style_storm_surge_barriers_across.html
 

• We live in Arkansas,
• which is in the United States,
• whose citizens are Americans (not United Statesians!)
• who speak English (not United Statesish!)

• Some people live in Holland
• What is the elevation in Holland?
• What country is it (in)? (Hint: not "Holland")
• What is the nationality of its people? (Hint: not Hollandian!) 
• What language do they speak? (Hint: not Hollandish!)

        North Sea flood of 1953
        Called the Delta Works (Dutch: Deltawerken)

            Includes the Eastern Scheldt storm surge barrier (Oosterscheldekering) 

            Also includes the Maeslant Barrier (Maeslantkering)
                 Wikipedia article
                 Video #1
                 Video #2
                 "Closure of the van Maeslantkering"
                        Video #3
                Video #4
                Video #5
               "Maeslant barrier" (aerial view)
                     Video #6   
              See also images.google.com, query Maeslant


Ever see the doors of the lock of the Big Dam Bridge?

58:46- : After the movie was made, NYC did flood!
      What happened?
      Hurricane Sandy, 2012

1:00:50- : Well, Boston is already part of New England. Whatever.

1:03:50- : Transportation network shutdown might end civilization as we know it. Solution: local PV power, agbots everywhere, self-sufficient communities...

1:05:12- : What if the internet shut down? 15 years ago, a biggish deal but not that big. How big now?

1:09:25-1:09:40: I think building collapses will take awhile. And remember NYC did get flooded and no buildings fell down.

1:10:00- : Sounds a bit like some other products of the dystopian story theme in American culture. Examples?

More comments and questions

They had San Diego build salt water desalination plants
   See carlsbaddesal.com
 
The family moves to a big city
   That's the trend worldwide
   Why?
   Good, bad, or neither?

They say if climate change
is not controlled by 2015
it will be too late
   What's the current thinking?
   2019

They said if
everyone eats an American diet
we'd need 4 Earths
to produce the food
   What should happen?
   What might happen?

They show a simulated
climate control summit
that fails
   Why?
   What has happened before with international climate control agreements?
 
What about just moving north or inland?

2030: "shortages and high prices will be a fact of life"
   What do you think?

2040: Millions of desperate refugees trying to cross into the US
    Realistic?

2060: NYC ("The Big Apple")
    What do people say about it?
    Could disease strike in a big way?

2070: Sea level up 3 feet
    Realistic?
         Sea graph at
         http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php
    What would happen if that happened?
   
2070: Massive methane spike
    What is methane?
    Where does it come from?
    Why might there be a spike?
    What would a spike cause?

2084: Society starts breaking down for real
    Disease shuts down transportation network
        Possible?
        What then?
        Can one prepare?

Temporary Digression...............

1. What is Science, Really? What is Pseudoscience?

(More discussion related to "Earth 2100")

Some initial comments and questions
before the general discussion

What is the difference between:
science
   and
mathematics?




2. Math: 
prove new things 
     based on 
existing knowledge

Mathematical reasoning is:
deductive

• 1+1=2
• 2+2=4
• Therefore, 
• 1+1+1+1=4
• (proof by substitution)

• All men are mortal
• Socrates is a man
• Therefore, 
• Socrates is mortal 
• (proof by "syllogism")

• Deduction can prove things
• Mathematics uses deduction
• Therefore, 
• mathematics can prove things 
• (proof by syllogism again!)

3. Science is different from math!

• Science is based on:
• induction
• (not deduction)
• All apples that break off the tree, 
• fall down
• Therefore, if I shake this apple tree,
• and an apple breaks off,
• it will fall down
• Not a proof! 
• Can you think of a counterexample?

• That which goes up has always come down
• Therefore, if I throw this up, it will come down
• Not a proof! Can you think of a counterexample?

4. Science needs more than induction

Humankind has always sought reasons

Scientists call those reasons
       "theories" and "hypotheses"

Theories are the BIG ones

• relativity
• evolution
• continental drift/plate tectonics

Hypotheses are the ---little--- ones

• If the ground gets waterlogged,
• water will get into my basement
• IFSC students learn 
• more employable things than physics majors

Conclusion. . .
Math proves; 
science does not prove!

Science disproves 
      (by refuting inductive "truths")

Science explains
     (using theories)

Science predicts
     (because the theories predict)

5. The phrase "scientific proof" makes no sense!

• Science does not prove things!
• It explains things and finds evidence
• According to famous biologist Stephen Jay Gould:
• "In science, “fact” can only mean 'confirmed to such a degree that it would be perverse to withhold provisional assent.' "
• If only everyone actually knew that
• Not just you, but also
• reporters, 
• spokespeople, 
• politicians
• the average person

6. Comments on Earth 2100

. . . Worst case scenario
      consistent with best science available

. . . The main cause depicted was






           global warming

. . . Secondary causes were








           deadly disease
           rising sea level
           poverty and hardship

. . . Effects were ultimately






           Governmental collapse
           Technological regression


. . . . . . So things could be that bad, but might not

7. Climate science uses theories
implemented as complex
computerized models

• There are variations among 
• different models
• Their global warming computations make
• different predictions

Almost all (never all, right?)
climate specialists agree:

• Global warming is happening, will get worse, and is a serious problem
• That is the consensus among climate scientists
• No math-style deductive proof is possible

8. Politics and special interests 
are a different ball game

. . . Some economic interests 
      benefit most 
      if nothing is done

. . . . . . Naturally, they will impede change


. . . Recall Jared Diamonds heirarchy of inaction

1. Failing to anticipate an existential problem
2. Anticipating it but failing to recognize it when it arrives
3. Recognizing it but failing to try to solve it
1. This is "the most frequent"! (p. 427)
2. North Carolina passed a law against global warming science
4. Trying to solve it but failing to succeed

9. Your turn: 
Earth 2100 further discussion


In small groups:

What technologies are envisioned 
and what are their plausibilities?


10. Ok, So How to Prevent a Global Warming Disaster?


. . .The hard way:
      reduce CO2 emissions

             Why is this hard to do?

. . .An easier way?
     Geoengineering!
          What's that?


. . .Volcanoes are a clue
     Large volcanic eruptions cool the climate
           (Temporarily)

. . .Mt. Pinatubo (Philippines), 1991
     Major eruption caused global cooling
     About a degree (F) for a few years

. . .Other eruptions associated with global cooling:
     Mt. Tambora, Indonesia (1815)
     Laki, Iceland (1783
     Krakatoa, Indonesia (1883)
     . . .and other smaller ones

. . .Why?
         Volcanoes emit CO2
          ...but...
        They emit SO2 as well
         SO2 causes cooling!
       
. . .What is SO2?










10a. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)


Mixes with water vapor in stratosphere

Turns into sulfuric acid solution droplets

They block and reflect sunlight

Results:

. . .spectacular sunsets worldwide

. . .less sunlight reaches Earth

. . .Global cooling

So why not do it on purpose?

. . .Well, why not?


10b. Putting SO2 into the Stratosphere On Purpose


A gallon of liquified SO2,
every couple seconds,
would be enough
(some think)

SO2 is easy to make
. . .but how to get it high enough?

. . .stratosphere starts about 6 miles up

. . . . . .use lots of airplanes to spray it

. . . . . .use balloons with sprayers

. . . . . .would special guns work?

. . . . . .use a real long hose
but how to get the end of the hose up so high?
Let's try to design such a hose...

Advantages:

. . .much, much cheaper than reducing emissions


Problems:

. . .would the technology really work?

. . .if the technology worked, would the SO2 really have the predicted effects?

. . .ozone layer damage

. . .ocean acidification

. . .people waste time gazing at the sunsets :)


10c. What should we do?


Environmentalists don't like SO2

Business interests deny global warming exists

Governments so far show no interest in SO2

What do you think?




10d. Another Way to Do the Same Thing


Spray sea water to make more clouds over the ocean

Salt particles nucleate water droplets

Cloudier skies result

Less sunshine warming the dark oceans

Need to persuade ships to spray as they go








11. What is the connection between 
epidemics and global warming?

• Any diseases already spread to the US?
• Any that may soon?

What are some tipping points to social stability?

• Long-term blackouts
• Transportation network breakdown
• Where would you want to live if things went bad?
• How about Arkansas?
• Little Rock?

What can you do now?

12. Could Earth 2100 
really happen like that?


There are different cases:
   best
   worst
   intermediate (many)

Earth 2100 depicts the worst case
   Probably won't be that bad
   But it is possible
   Hard to predict for sure: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUEnXOX-qEQ (Chaos (Lorenz) wheel as a garden water feature)
   Still, 
      ...buy beachfront property cautiously


What signs portend a worst case scenario?
   CO2 is a relatively known factor
   CH4 (methane) is less so
   . . . but it has strong greenhouse effects
   If northern ice melts
   . . . and dark permafrost ground is exposed
   . . . and warms up from sunlight
   . . . and melts
   . . . and releases methane
   Then start worrying more
  
   If oceans start releasing methane
   . . . due to warming waters
   Then start worrying more

   No methane spike, no worst case
   . . . probably
   Bottom line:
   . . . watch for news on methane releases



13. Hyperpowers are historically limited in time

• Mongolia
• Rome
• UK
• US

We're #1!

But how can we stay that way?









14. What are the natural tendencies that 
cause hyperpowers to be time-limited?

• Rigidity
• Over-confidence from past successes
• Inner rot

What can be done to prevent it or delay the inevitable? 











Why successful societies collapse

Earth 2100 quotes someone asking what
the person who cut down
the last palm tree on Easter Island
could have been thinking

That is straight out of Diamond's book

(Diamond appeared several times in the movie)

Easter Island, Rome, the Anasazi, the Mayans, the Greenland Norse, ...