Theories of Innovation

Note to instructor: With full discussion of each theory, a 150-min. class will not finish all the theories

Welcome to Fall 2017!

Please click on the "Topic list and syllabus" tab for the course schedule. The "Course Guidelines" tab leads to information about how the course will work. Homeworks are each in their own tab and will be updated for this semester as we go along. Again, welcome!

2017 shorts

Futuristic videos from 2017:

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4epBt2o9M0o (up to 5:00 and 10-15 sec. at the end)

Here is a relevant result from our lab here at UA Little Rock:

5 min.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RPeQxjqDb8

War With the Newts:

Cones of Uncertainty

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Foresight using cones of uncertainty 

was first presented in versions of

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA231618

(Let's see the cone figures there)

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Cones of Uncertainty and Pandemics

Cones of Uncertainty and Hurricanes

Class Exercise:

Let's pick someone's Delphi question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

           Use the whiteboard if available

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Discuss



Group Exercise:


Pick one member's Delphi question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

Use the whiteboard if available

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Explain to class



Individual Exercise:

Pick your Delphi question
        Or make up a new question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Explain to class