Cones of Uncertainty

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Foresight using cones of uncertainty 

was first presented in versions of

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA231618

(Let's see the cone figures there)

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Cones of Uncertainty and Pandemics

Cones of Uncertainty and Hurricanes

Class Exercise:

Let's pick someone's Delphi question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

           Use the whiteboard if available

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Discuss



Group Exercise:


Pick one member's Delphi question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

Use the whiteboard if available

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Explain to class



Individual Exercise:

Pick your Delphi question
        Or make up a new question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Explain to class

Spring 2019
Graph of prices of prediction market contract for weather related cancellation of classes on main UALR campus by 8:40 PM on Thursday, May 2, 2019. CAUTION: Final price of zero shown on graph is subject to change if classes are officially canceled for any reason before 8:40 p.m. tonight!

Fall 2017
Graph of prices of prediction market contract for weather related cancellation of classes on main UALR campus by 8:40 PM on Nov. 28, 2017. CAUTION: Predicted price portion is subject to change if classes are officially canceled for any reason within the next 3 hours and 56 minutes!

Fall 2016
Announcement: See last HW statement regarding the project, due next Tuesday 12/6/16.

Graph of prices of prediction market contract for weather related cancellation of classes on main UALR campus by 9 PM on Nov. 29, 2016.

Shaded portion is guesstimated but won't be known for sure until 9 PM!

HW 11 scores - more details

HW 11 has been scored. See Blackboard. If you would like to see the detailed markup, it is on hard copies. I am happy to provide those upon request.

ANNOUNCEMENT: HW scores are on BlackBoard.

ANNOUNCEMENT:

HW scores are on BlackBoard.

Please let me know if you have any problems accessing them, in case I need to better configure BlackBoard.

A few 2016 videos

A few 2016 videos about the future: rank them!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzhaBi20Xy0

http://www.nytimes.com/video/garden/100000003003809/the-internet-of-things.html

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/videos/top-5-future-tech-trends/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbNHCn2gHQ4

Welcome to Spring 2020!

A new futures market

On 24 Oct 2015, at 13:17, WLS on APF mailing list wrote:

The Guggenheim Museum has just launched an interactive online futures (as in alternative futures) market.  

Åzone Futures Market turns visitors into investors in our collective future. Based online, Åzone (pronounced “ozone”) takes the form of a marketplace of projections about the future. Anyone can sign up, receive some “cåin (Å)”—the Åzone currency, pronounced like “coin”—and start taking positions on the future lives they want to live. Hugo Liu, founder of the art valuation technology startup ArtAdviser, programmed a custom engine to make it work like a real stock market, where prices are sensitive to investor activity, reflecting overall interest in each “future.”

See blog here:

http://blogs.guggenheim.org/checklist/the-futures-are-now-troy-conrad-therrien-on-the-guggenheims-new-online-exhibition/

and go play here:

http://azone.guggenheim.org/