COVID-19 items

Some projections:

Resource projections:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/

Case counts in arkansas:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Arkansas

US
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

International comparisons
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-since-100th-case

Daily cases by continent:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Italy daily cases:
https://www.statista.com/chart/21099/coronavirus-in-italy

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We've talked about exponential growth


Why COVID-19? Why now?

        We have questions

        Structural-Demographic Theory claims to have answers


COVID-19 provides an example

Let's check a spreadsheet with some proof-of-concept epidemiological simulations

      Shows epidemic qualitative behaviors

      Not an attempt to model this or any specific epidemic

Assume:

• Contagiousness (R_0) = [2, 3.11], let's estimate 2.55
• Source: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/12/21172040/coronavirus-covid-19-virus-charts

• Doubling time=6.4 days
• Source: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

• US pop. = 331,000,000

• Let's do a back-of-the-napkin spreadsheet
• Col. A: new cases at 2.55x
• Col. B: cumulative total cases
• Col C: unexposed population
• Col D: if we reduce the 2.55 
• How might we do that?
• Col. E: Rate of increase using doubling time
• That's as far as I got today
• ...more next week(?)