Thursday, February 6, 2014

Prediction Market Contract

(Not a valid contract -- for educational use only)
Contract #__

Prediction Market Contract

This document hereby certifies that 

The broker (Little Rock Prediction Company, Little Rock's most famous prediction marketplace)

will pay the last owner 
and charge the first owner 
of this contract
the sum of 

----ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS ($100) IN CASH----

if the following event occurs as specified:

There is a cancellation of all classes on the main UALR campus
for any reason and any period of time between
6:00 p.m. on Thursday February 13, 2020
and
8:40 p.m. on Thursday April 30, 2020

Otherwise this contract shall have a value of $0.00 (nothing)


Sold by________________ to_____________for $______ on _________

Sold by________________ to_____________for $______ on _________

Sold by________________ to_____________for $______ on _________

Sold by________________ to_____________for $______ on _________

Sold by________________ to_____________for $______ on _________

Sold by________________ to_____________for $______ on _________

Sold by________________ to_____________for $______ on _________

Sold by________________ to_____________for $______ on _________

(continue on back as needed --->)

Price history: 

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Welcome!

Welcome to IFSC 4301 (& 5399).

Your first stop on this website is likely to be the topic list and syllabus tab above. Click on it now!

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Welcome to Spring, 2014, IFSC 4301 "Information, Computing, and the Future"!

This is the course web site which, as you can see, is a blog.

Please check in particular the Course Guidelines page (click on tab above, or go directly to http://informationcomputingandthefuture.blogspot.com/p/course-guidelines.html).

Also please check the Topic List and Syllabus page (click on tab above, or go directly to http://informationcomputingandthefuture.blogspot.com/p/topic-list-and-syllabus.html).

Thursday, April 25, 2013

"I, Robot" - Ethical Quandaries of Robotics

"The Three Laws of Robotics"
Have you heard about them?
 What are they?

 Why are they?



I, Robot
Book of short stories by Isaac Asimov
(c) 1950
Movie “based” on book
released in 2004
Book much better!
(my opinion, your mileage may vary)

Here are just a couple of the many
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Stories are based on…
The “three laws of robotics”
What are they?
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The 3 Laws:
1) A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
2) A robot must obey the orders given it by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
3) A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.
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Theme of stories is…
The 3 laws conflict
They form an ethical code with “problems”
Can anyone think of how they might conflict?
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Let’s look at the story plots
…because each story is based on a conflict
Warning: I am ignoring reading pleasure – go read it yourself!
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“Robbie”
Robbie is a nannybot
When the parents send Robbie away…
Little Gloria is heartbroken
What should Robbie do?
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“Runaround”
Setting: Mining colony on Mercury
Speedy is the robot
He is ordered to fetch liquid selenium from a lake
Does not return…what happened?
He’s circling the lake, acting “drunk”
The problem:
Selenium is dangerous to him
3rd law is strong because he’s expensive
2nd law is weak because order was so casual
So he’s stuck at a distance where they balance
Can a law be “strengthened” or “weakened”?
Is this conflict really a possibility?
What should Speedy do?
What should the colonists do?
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“Reason”
 Setting:
Space station beaming energy to Earth
QT1 (“Cutie”) is a new, advanced AI robot
QT1 concludes that Earth, stars…do not exist
“I myself, exist, because I think”
QT1 decides humans are inferior
Problem:
QT1 is responsible for aiming the beam
One mistake could fry a city
The humans on the ship are in a frenzy
What happens?
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“Catch That Rabbit”
Robot DV-5 (“Dave”)
It controls several remote bots by RF
But the remote bots just “dance”
When humans observe, they work again
(The problem was called a “Heisenbug”)
Why?
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Resolution:
Dave gets confused by too much complexity
Human observers reduce the complexity
Solution: deactivate one remote robot
Now there is less complexity
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“Liar!”
Robot RB-34 (“Herbie”)
Story has first known occurrence of term “robotics”
Poor Herbie has a manufacturing defect
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He’s telepathic…
…ok, let’s allow some artistic license here
What to do when telling the truth hurts a human?
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So Herbie is always lying!
What could happen?
What should Herbie do?
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In the story -
Herbie is told of the problem
…seeing no way out

He freezes up permanently
Time for a new robot
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“Escape”
A new hypersmart AI designs a hyperspatial space drive
The crew takes off
But…no showers, beds, or any food besides beans and milk
What’s the problem?
The AI is off kilter because during the hyperspace jump the crew ceases to exist briefly
Problem: AI thinks that conflicts with 1st law
What’s the solution?
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“Evidence”
Byerly survives a wreck
Later, runs for office
Opponent Quinn accuses him of being a robot
…made to look like Byerly
How can Byerly prove he’s not a robot?
Office holders must be human!
(Is that a good rule?)
He eats an apple
Proof?
He has a right not to be x-rayed, etc.
What can he do to prove humanness and win the election?
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A heckler runs onto stage during a speech
Demands Byerly hit him
(What would that prove?)
Byerly does!
How could Byerly do that *if* he was a robot?
Would a robot be a good leader?
Note: the story never says if he is or is not a robot
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“The Evitable Conflict”
Byerly is now World Co-ordinator
Robots/AIs control many decisions
But some decisions are harming some humans!
Why?
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Robots are interpreting the 1st law as “humanity” shall not come to harm
This would seem to require occasionally harming individuals
What should the AIs actually do?
The robots are in control
Should they be removed?
Still never resolved:
Whether Byerly is a robot or a human

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Guest speaker: Harry E. Pence, PhD

Dr. Pence is a chemist and State University of New York Distinguished Teaching Professor Emeritus. He presently serves as a Faculty Fellow for Emerging Technologies at the Teaching and Learning with Technology Center at the campus in Oneonta, NY. He has written and presented frequently about emerging learning technologies and has served on several state-wide and national committees that deal with this topic. He is a co-editor, along with Dr. Robert Belford (UALR Chemistry Dept.) of the recently published American Chemical Society book, "Enhancing Learning with Online Resources, Social Networking, and Digital Libraries," and co-authored two chapters in that book.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

"Scientific Proof" - an Idea Debunked

1. Let us find out what "scientific proof" really means
. . . and what it doesn't

     We can relate this to 
         daily life
         Earth 2100
         or whatever we feel like discussing

A starting point:
    What is the difference between
    science
    and
    mathematics?




2. Math:
prove new things
based on
existing knowledge

Mathematical reasoning is:
deductive

  • 1+1=2
  • 2+2=4
  • Therefore,
    • 1+1+1+1=4
    • (proof by substitution)

  • All men are mortal
  • Socrates is a man
  • Therefore,
    • Socrates is mortal
    • (proof by "syllogism")

  • Deduction can prove things
  • Mathematics uses deduction
  • Therefore,
    • mathematics can prove things
    • (proof by syllogism again!)



3. Science is different from math!

  • Science is based on:
    • induction
    • (not deduction)
  • All apples that break off the tree,
    • fall down
  • Therefore, if I shake this apple tree,
    • and an apple breaks off,
    • it will fall down
  • Not a proof!
    • Can you think of a counterexample?


  • That which goes up has always come down
  • Therefore, if I throw this up, it will come down
  • Not a proof! Can you think of a counterexample?


4. Science needs more than induction

Humankind has always sought reasons

Scientists call those reasons
"theories" and "hypotheses"

Theories are the BIG ones
  • relativity
  • evolution
  • continental drift/plate tectonics

Hypotheses are the >little< ones
  • If the ground gets waterlogged,
    • water will get into my basement
  • IFSC majors 
    • are more employable 
    • than physics majors

Conclusion. . .
Math proves;
science does not prove!

Science disproves
(by refuting inductive "truths")

Science explains
(using theories)

Science predicts
(because the theories predict)

5. The phrase "scientific proof" makes no sense!
  • Science does not prove things!
  • It explains things and finds evidence
  • If only everyone actually knew that
  • Not just you, but also
    • reporters,
    • spokespeople,
    • politicians
    • the average person
6. Example: Global Warming

7. Example: Various medical advice

8. Example: US legal system

9. Example: More speculative science
                    ("Do toxoplasma germs control humanity?")