(Takes 150+ minutes even without the science discussion)
Earth 2100 Discussion Questions
Let's finish the movie as needed first
In small group(s) as appropriate:
How would you
rate or critique
the movie as
a movie?
Should we all become
"preppers"
(survivalists)?
Story starts in
2009
How has the movie's predictions,
since 2009,
tracked reality so far?
Here are some observations on this
- 2021: www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDqRpM72Odg works.
The time-tagged discussion notes below are illustrative, but old. New notes based on the current state of the world will be taken by the instructor in real time as we view the movie. The notes on the Deltawerken (Delta Works) however have enduring currency.
2012 (4:45-5:30 ): "... and we recycled": How is that going?
2014: Dragonflies land in Miami instead of Cuba. Did something like that happen?
2015 (6:47-7:20, 8:00-8:30): Oil running out, shortages, high prices - did that happen? Devastating hurricane occurs - did that happen? Climate agreement required by then to avoid serious outcome - what happened there? China and India sink the agreement - what is the actual situation?
2016: Gas prices going higher, tundra thawing, 8 billion people, shortages & high prices "normal" - what was the actual situation?
2030: Worldwide water stress. Realistic?
2060: All cars electric. New viral pandemic. Realistic?
2070: Sea levels up 3 feet. Realistic?
2100: Widespread disintegration; a national entity doesn't seem to exist any more. Could that happen? There is actually a way to mathematically analyze the probability of this.
(9:40-10:05): Disruptive innovation from artificial meat:
Like grid parity for PV, there is "meat parity"
(26:07- ): This is unlikely but appeals to our worst fears.
(28:01-29:30): The worst mass extinction was recently theorized to be by proliferation of methanosarcina organisms which took advantage of previously unusable organic substance buildup. We are the first to take advantage of an analogous resource as well: information. So maybe we are like the methanosarcina, and the 62 million year cycle continues...
(32:40-33:37): Famous example, but with a fatal flaw pointed out in the book
Questioning Collapse
(36:00-36:18): "...and a few books": what is wrong with this picture?
(38:07-38:23): Remember "grid parity"? I think 2050 is too pessimistic for this scene!
(41:11-42:00): See
Greensburg in Wikipedia (article mentions Earth 2100). But this concept of small self-sufficient communities is attractive to some but problematic and unnecessary as well as economically regressive.
(45:30-45:45): Ties into technology decreasing in cost, also ties into grid parity. What we need: spray-on solar power paint. Solar power in a spray can.
(46:55-46:15): Well, 2009 was before self-driving cars were invented...
(46:35-46:48): the self-sufficient commune idea again. Arkansas was a popular destination for that a few decades ago. But what about agbots and such, which were not well developed or visible in 2009?
(51:40- ): The whole methane thing is reminiscent of the methanosarcina-induced mass extinction long ago. Methane is still a biologically untapped energy resource even now!
(53:50- ): What do you think of geoengineering solutions? We could check the proposals online...
(55:11- ): The concept of destroying the ozone layer has a precedent: freon.
(56:40- ): The barrier design is wrong. The Netherlands has had a working sea gate for decades. Holland is below sea level. The Dutch gov't made a sea wall after a disaster several decades ago.
One proposal is to copy the Dutch storm surge barrier
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2012/11/hurricane_proofing_new_york_city_dutch_style_storm_surge_barriers_across.html
- We live in Arkansas,
- which is in the United States,
- whose citizens are Americans (not United Statesians!)
- who speak English (not United Statesish!)
- Some people live in Holland
- What is the elevation in Holland?
- What country is it (in)? (Hint: not "Holland")
- What is the nationality of its people? (Hint: not Hollandian!)
- What language do they speak? (Hint: not Hollandish!)
North Sea flood of 1953
Called the
Delta Works (Dutch: Deltawerken)
Includes the
Eastern Scheldt storm surge barrier (
Oosterscheldekering)
Also includes the Maeslant Barrier (Maeslantkering)
Wikipedia article
Video #1
Video #2
"Closure of the van Maeslantkering"
Video #3
Video #4
Video #5
"Maeslant barrier" (aerial view)
Video #6
See also images.google.com, query Maeslant
Ever see the doors of the lock of the Big Dam Bridge?
58:46- : After the movie was made, NYC
did flood!
What happened?
Hurricane Sandy, 2012
1:00:50- : Well, Boston is already part of New England. Whatever.
1:03:50- : Transportation network shutdown might end civilization as we know it. Solution: local PV power, agbots everywhere, self-sufficient communities...
1:05:12- : What if the internet shut down? 15 years ago, a biggish deal but not that big. How big now?
1:09:25-1:09:40: I think building collapses will take awhile. And remember NYC did get flooded and no buildings fell down.
1:10:00- : Sounds a bit like some other products of the dystopian story theme in American culture. Examples?
More comments and questions
They had San Diego build salt water desalination plants
See
carlsbaddesal.com
The family moves to a big city
That's the trend worldwide
Why?
Good, bad, or neither?
They say if climate change
is not controlled by 2015
it will be too late
What's the current thinking?
2019
They said if
everyone eats an American diet
we'd need 4 Earths
to produce the food
What should happen?
What might happen?
They show a simulated
climate control summit
that fails
Why?
What has happened before with international climate control agreements?
What about just moving north or inland?
2030: "shortages and high prices will be a fact of life"
What do you think?
2040: Millions of desperate refugees trying to cross into the US
Realistic?
2060: NYC ("The Big Apple")
What do people say about it?
Could disease strike in a big way?
2070: Sea level up 3 feet
Realistic?
Sea graph at
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php
What would happen if that happened?
2070: Massive methane spike
What is methane?
Where does it come from?
Why might there be a spike?
What would a spike cause?
2084: Society starts breaking down for real
Disease shuts down transportation network
Possible?
What then?
Can one prepare?
Temporary Digression...............
1. What is Science, Really? What is Pseudoscience?
(More discussion related to "Earth 2100")
Some initial comments and questions
before the general discussion
What is the difference between:
science
and
mathematics?
2. Math:
prove new things
based on
existing knowledge
Mathematical reasoning is:
deductive
- 1+1=2
- 2+2=4
- Therefore,
- 1+1+1+1=4
- (proof by substitution)
- All men are mortal
- Socrates is a man
- Therefore,
- Socrates is mortal
- (proof by "syllogism")
- Deduction can prove things
- Mathematics uses deduction
- Therefore,
- mathematics can prove things
- (proof by syllogism again!)
3. Science is different from math!
- Science is based on:
- induction
- (not deduction)
- All apples that break off the tree,
- Therefore, if I shake this apple tree,
- and an apple breaks off,
- it will fall down
- Not a proof!
- Can you think of a counterexample?
- That which goes up has always come down
- Therefore, if I throw this up, it will come down
- Not a proof! Can you think of a counterexample?
4. Science needs more than induction
Humankind has always sought
reasons
Scientists call those reasons
"
theories" and "
hypotheses"
Theories are the
BIG ones
- relativity
- evolution
- continental drift/plate tectonics
Hypotheses are the
---little--- ones
- If the ground gets waterlogged,
- water will get into my basement
- IFSC students learn
- more employable things than physics majors
Conclusion. . .
Math proves;
science does not prove!
Science
disproves
(by refuting inductive "truths")
Science
explains
(using theories)
Science
predicts
(because the theories predict)
5. The phrase "scientific proof" makes no sense!
- Science does not prove things!
- It explains things and finds evidence
- According to famous biologist Stephen Jay Gould:
- If only everyone actually knew that
- Not just you, but also
- reporters,
- spokespeople,
- politicians
- the average person
6. Comments on Earth 2100
. . . Worst case scenario
consistent with best science available
. . . The main cause depicted was
global warming
. . . Secondary causes were
deadly disease
rising sea level
poverty and hardship
. . . Effects were ultimately
Governmental collapse
Technological regression
. . . . . . So things
could be that bad, but
might not
7. Climate science uses theories
implemented as complex
computerized models
- There are variations among
- Their global warming computations make
Almost all (never all, right?)
climate specialists agree:
- Global warming is happening, will get worse, and is a serious problem
- That is the consensus among climate scientists
- No math-style deductive proof is possible
8. Politics and special interests
are a different ball game
. . . Some economic interests
benefit most
if nothing is done
. . . . . . Naturally, they will impede change
. . . Recall Jared Diamonds heirarchy of inaction
- Failing to anticipate an existential problem
- Anticipating it but failing to recognize it when it arrives
- Recognizing it but failing to try to solve it
- This is "the most frequent"! (p. 427)
- North Carolina passed a law against global warming science
- Trying to solve it but failing to succeed
9. Your turn:
Earth 2100 further discussion
In small groups:
What technologies are envisioned
and what are their plausibilities?
10. Ok, So How to Prevent a Global Warming Disaster?
. . .The hard way:
reduce CO2 emissions
Why is this hard to do?
. . .An easier way?
Geoengineering!
What's that?
. . .Volcanoes are a clue
Large volcanic eruptions cool the climate
(Temporarily)
. . .Mt. Pinatubo (Philippines), 1991
Major eruption caused global cooling
About a degree (F) for a few years
. . .Other eruptions associated with global cooling:
Mt. Tambora, Indonesia (1815)
Laki, Iceland (1783
Krakatoa, Indonesia (1883)
. . .and other smaller ones
. . .Why?
Volcanoes emit CO2
...but...
They emit SO2 as well
SO2 causes
cooling!
. . .What is SO2?
10a. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
Mixes with water vapor in stratosphere
Turns into sulfuric acid solution droplets
They block and reflect sunlight
Results:
. . .spectacular sunsets worldwide
. . .less sunlight reaches Earth
. . .Global cooling
So why not do it on purpose?
. . .Well, why not?
10b. Putting SO2 into the Stratosphere On Purpose
A gallon of liquified SO2,
every couple seconds,
would be enough
(some think)
SO2 is easy to make
. . .but how to get it high enough?
. . .stratosphere starts about 6 miles up
. . . . . .use lots of airplanes to spray it
. . . . . .use balloons with sprayers
. . . . . .would special guns work?
. . . . . .use a real long hose
but how to get the end of the hose up so high?
Let's try to design such a hose...
Advantages:
. . .much, much cheaper than reducing emissions
Problems:
. . .would the technology really work?
. . .if the technology worked, would the SO2 really have the predicted effects?
. . .ozone layer damage
. . .ocean acidification
. . .people waste time gazing at the sunsets :)
10c. What should we do?
Environmentalists don't like SO2
Business interests deny global warming exists
Governments so far show no interest in SO2
What do
you think?
10d. Another Way to Do the Same Thing
Spray sea water to make more clouds over the ocean
Salt particles nucleate water droplets
Cloudier skies result
Less sunshine warming the dark oceans
Need to persuade ships to spray as they go
11. What is the connection between
epidemics and global warming?
- Any diseases already spread to the US?
- Any that may soon?
What are some tipping points to social stability?
- Long-term blackouts
- Transportation network breakdown
- Where would you want to live if things went bad?
- How about Arkansas?
- Little Rock?
What can you do now?
12. Could Earth 2100
really happen like that?
There are different cases:
best
worst
intermediate (many)
Earth 2100 depicts the worst case
Probably won't be that bad
But it is possible
Hard to predict for sure: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUEnXOX-qEQ (Chaos (Lorenz) wheel as a garden water feature)
Still,
...buy beachfront property cautiously
What signs portend a worst case scenario?
CO2 is a relatively known factor
CH4 (methane) is less so
. . . but it has strong greenhouse effects
If northern ice melts
. . . and dark permafrost ground is exposed
. . . and warms up from sunlight
. . . and melts
. . . and releases methane
Then start worrying more
If oceans start releasing methane
. . . due to warming waters
Then start worrying more
No methane spike, no worst case
. . . probably
Bottom line:
. . . watch for news on methane releases
13. Hyperpowers are historically limited in time
We're #1!
But how can we stay that way?
14. What are the natural tendencies that
cause hyperpowers to be time-limited?
- Rigidity
- Over-confidence from past successes
- Inner rot
What can be done to prevent it or delay the inevitable?
Why successful societies collapse
Earth 2100 quotes someone asking what
the person who cut down
the last palm tree on Easter Island
could have been thinking
That is straight out of Diamond's book
(Diamond appeared several times in the movie)
Easter Island, Rome, the Anasazi, the Mayans, the Greenland Norse, ...
