Homework 5, due Tuesday Sept. 27, 2016

1)  Report on two prediction markets (other than intrade.com). They do not have to necessarily describe themselves as "prediction markets" as long as they are, in fact, environments in which people buy and sell based on their estimates of something in the future.

2)  Critique the prediction market idea. Why might their predictions be wrong?

Do not do (since you already did it on the last HW):

Recall the video "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams." It is about the future... your future. We saw it in class on DVD, but it is also available on youtube if you want a refresher (or were absent), at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ji5_MqicxSo.

a) What were at least three ways he suggested to help achieve your childhood dreams? Do you agree with them? Why or why not?

b) The whole concept of achieving your childhood dreams resonates with many people, but would not resonate with many others. It is a way to "self-actualize," which is a popular philosophy of life in America, perhaps more with certain segments of the the population than others. But there are other philosophies of life. Other philosophies of life that exist here and in other times and places include things like: (a) a good life is achieved by commitment to a particular religious tradition; (b) one's life should be about caring for (traditionally for women) or providing for (traditionally for men) one's family. It has been said that seeking happiness as a direct goal is a good way not to be happy, because happiness is not achievable as a direct goal, but rather occurs as a side effect of helping, or contributing to, or being important to, others.
      Discuss your opinions on this important issue.

3) Pausch claims, "... when you do the right thing, good stuff has a way of happening." And later, "It's not about how to achieve your dreams, it's about how to lead your life. If you lead your life the right way, the karma will take care of itself. The dreams will come to you [i.e., will happen automatically]."

This is an example of something called the "just world hypothesis." On the other hand, there is a well known book entitled When Bad Things Happen to Good People. And recall that Pausch himself gave this lecture after being diagnosed with terminal pancreatic cancer.
     Discuss your opinions on this important issue.

4) Write up 299 words on how your project topic will affect your personal future (this can be re-used later as part of the ultimate writeup). If the topic will not affect your personal future, then instead, write 250 words on something else for your project. If your project does not involve writing, do something else of equivalent effort and explain what you did. Multi-person projects - if you coordinate with your other team member(s), then the coordination counts as part of it, so a little less than 250 words would be acceptable.

5) Identify 8-10 sources of information about your project topic (web pages are fine). Provide the URLs and give 2-3 sentences describing each one. (Multi-person projects - any overlap should be small.)6

6) Grad students only. Read 15 pages in the book you have obtained. Explain what you agree with, disagree with, learned from it, and how your views agree with or disagree with the reviewers of the book that you found for last week.

Do not do in Fall, 2016, but may be assigned next year:
Building Your Personal Future
1. ("Do"). Based on your work on this topic, identify something that will progress you toward your vision, such as a strategic action that helps address a strategic issue, such as a core strategic issue that is a prerequisite to others. (On your blog, simply note if you succeeded on this question, but don't put the answer there.)

2. ("Monitor"). Consider the results of 1. How well did it work, or is it working now? If well, then you are on track. If instead any problems of any kind arose, see 3.  (On your blog, note if it worked or not, but don't put what it was.)

3. ("Accountability"). If step 2. above worked, reward yourself! If things did not go as well as hoped for, analyze why and what you could do to circumvent them. Take notes on this for future reference. (On your blog, note the result of this question in general terms, but don't put any details.)

4. (Optional) Repeat steps 1 through 3.

5. (Optional) Keep on repeating, good luck, and remember to smell the flowers!