Cones of Uncertainty

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Foresight using cones of uncertainty 

was first presented in versions of

http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA231618

(Let's see the cone figures there)

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Cones of Uncertainty and Pandemics

Cones of Uncertainty and Hurricanes

Class Exercise:

Let's pick someone's Delphi question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

           Use the whiteboard if available

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Discuss



Group Exercise:


Pick one member's Delphi question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

Use the whiteboard if available

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Explain to class



Individual Exercise:

Pick your Delphi question
        Or make up a new question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Explain to class