Resource projections:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/
Case counts in arkansas:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Arkansas
US
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
International comparisons
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-confirmed-cases-since-100th-case
Daily cases by continent:
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
Italy daily cases:
https://www.statista.com/chart/21099/coronavirus-in-italy
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We've talked about exponential growth
Why COVID-19? Why now?
We have questions
Structural-Demographic Theory claims to have answers
COVID-19 provides an example
Let's check a spreadsheet with some proof-of-concept epidemiological simulations
Shows epidemic qualitative behaviors
Not an attempt to model this or any specific epidemic
Assume:
- Contagiousness (R_0) = [2, 3.11], let's estimate 2.55
- Doubling time=6.4 days
- US pop. = 331,000,000
- Let's do a back-of-the-napkin spreadsheet
- Col. A: new cases at 2.55x
- Col. B: cumulative total cases
- Col C: unexposed population
- Col D: if we reduce the 2.55
- How might we do that?
- Col. E: Rate of increase using doubling time
- That's as far as I got today
- ...more next week(?)
