Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Cones of Uncertainty



Foresight using cones of uncertainty 
was first presented in versions of
(Let's see the cone figures there)















Group Exercise:

Pick one member's Delphi question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

Use the whiteboard if available

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Explain to class


Individual Exercise:

Pick your Delphi question
        Or make up a new question

Choose two future time points
       Example: in 5 years and in 20 years

Describe the range of scenarios possible
      (For each time point)

Does the range increase for more distant times?

Explain to class




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