More heuristics for foreseeing change

"Shift Happens"
  - youtube video
we'll watch later...
but first...



Heuristics

What is a heuristic?


Last time: curves

   We saw
     linear,
     exponential,
     S, and
     plateau curves

     Recall:
     each approximates
     a small piece
     of the one after


Are those curves...
    laws?
    heuristics?
   
Today -

   A grab bag of
      heuristics
  for predicting

  (What was a heuristic again?)


Next time -
  Delphi methods

To prepare:
  think of one question
  about the future of
  something of your choice

     In class, we will use
     Delphi methods to
     apply our
     collective wisdom
     to your question


(Also, HW 2 is due in two classes 
- questions about it?)




Let's check two versions of 
the youtube video 
"Did you know?"
(ref: http://thefischbowl.blogspot.com/)


2006: "Did You Know":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cL9Wu2kWwSY


2009: "Did You Know 4.0": 
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ILQrUrEWe8


How would you compare them?


Should they do another one for 2012?


But first, let's make a grid on the board for:

Statements in the video (rows)

Believability (column)

Implications (column)

Hidden messages (column)

Connection to methods of prediction (column)




Now the videos, 
then we will
analyze more...



Let's apply some of the following methods to something in the video!
(Some of these are from Peter Bishop's Futuring: An Introduction to the Study of the Future)


   Extrapolation

   Theoretical limits

   Paradigm shifts

   Adam Smith's "invisible hand"

   Cause and effect

   Foresight instead of forecasting

   Vision

   Expectations make it so?

   Risks & possibilities

   Can the future be controlled?

   Simulation/gaming

   Scenarios

   Oracles

   Psychohistory?

   Leading indicators

   Science fiction

   Road mapping

   Metrics