Class:
Informatics, Computing, and the Future
Instructor:
Dan Berleant
Transcriber:
Brooke Yu
Date:
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
What's your
name? Did you go last time? Did you give a question?
And, Andrew,
did you give a question last time?
Male
Student: I missed last Thursday.
Professor: When I responded to people's emails and
stuff, their names were showing up. I
think you were in one of my classes a few year ago.
Female
Student: Hmm, I don't remember
that. But probably. I can't remember.
Professor: Haha, unless it's someone else with your
name!
Professor: Who here went last time? How many people went last time? Well, we have a bunch more people to go
today, so let's get started. I do want
to review quickly where we are. First of
all, homework 2 is due Thursday. Any
questions about it?
Hopefully
you've all at least glanced over it.
No? Okay?
Everything's okay? Well, then
let's quickly look at the Delphi method.
Today, we're going to finish it, and then next time we'll start a new
topic.
Remember, the
process is a way of extracting group wisdom or crowd sourcing estimates of when
some future thing will happen.
So this shows
you a good way to analyze the data.
Suppose you got 8 responses.
Well, then the middle four- Pick
the median and graph that with an arrow.
That's midway between the middle two.
Then this would be the middle four, and you just draw kind of a shape
like that. Then for the lowest and the
highest, the lowest 25% should be 2, and the other 2 at the top are the top 25%
and you indicate those bounds.
So the
median, lowest 25%, and the highest 25% of responses.
So that's one
way to depict the data that we'll get.
Just to let you know that there's a lot more about the Delphi method
that we didn't talk about.
Here's an
entire book on how to do it. This will
give you an introduction, and then you'll know what it is.
When we're
done we'll have a couple more bullet points.
Okay, so...
okay.
Who didn't go
last time? Is brandy here?
Okay, I'm
just going to go through the alphabet.
Why don't we
start with you? What's your
question?
Female
Student: When will we no longer use
paper money? When will it all be digital
and cards?
Professor: Is that a suitably specific question or does
anybody see an ambiguities before they'd like to try to answer it?
Female
Student: Like when will it not be
accepted anymore?
Professor: Let's see- is this wordily wide? US?
Female
Student: Just the US, I guess.
Professor: Oh, we need a recorer.
Male
Student: I'll do it.
Professor: Okay , if you could rite down the question
and the data, that would be great. Let
me give you some time and we'll do the delphi method like we did last
time. I'll give you 45 seconds to do
that right now.
Professor: Okie doke.
Let's just write down the dates that you have.
Male
Student: 2040
Female
Student: 2020
Male Student: 2100
Female
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2050
Male
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2045
Female
Student: 2100
Professor: I'm trying to get everyone's names here. I'm studying these pictures, so just bear
with me. Who's next?
Male
Student: 2050
Professor: Next?
Male
Student: 2060
Female
Student: 2040
Male
Student: 2030
Professor: Did I miss anybody? Alright, so what's the next step?
Female
Student: Find the median.
Professor: Find the middle point and we discuss it. Let's go ahead and find the median.
Three highs,
two lows... [On board.]
So the median
would be 2042 and a half. For the
recorder, that's the answer we get.
Okay, so who
said... how many people said 2020? Would
you like to persuade the group that you're on the right track?
Male
Student: It seems like it's getting
faster and faster that we're using other forms of money, so I think it won't be
too long.
Professor: Okay, so you're appealing to this faster and
faster idea- things start out slow and they pick up.
Who argued
for 2100?
Male
Student: I think there's a lot of
money. There's a whole lot of paper and
coins, and I think people will use it unital there's no point in using it
anymore.
Professor: There's definitely the legacy argument
there.
Male
Student: I think it's 2045 because there
is a lot of money, but in the same sense that a lot of places don't take checks
anymore, I think it'll just slowly switch over to electronics. And singularity, you know?
Professor: Any last comments? Okay, think about the comments people have
made and I'll give you a little more time to come up with another date, then
we'll re-analyze.
Male Student: I didn't miss too much, did?
Professor: No.
Professor: Alright, is everyone ready? Why don't go ahead and start at this
end?
Female
Student: I asked the question, so do I
have to answer?
Professor: No.
Female
Student: 2025.
Female
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2080
Professor: You're tanner?
Male
Student: Yes sir.
Professor: Okay.
Male
Student: 2040.
Professor: The other reed. Are you collin reed?
Male
Student: Yeah. 2040
Male
Student: 2042.5.
Professor: Alright.
Female
Student: 2075.
Male
Student: 2042.5
Male
Student: 2043
Female
Student: 2040
Male
Student: 2030
Professor: Okay, so let's find the median [On
board.]
So now we get
2040, which is a little sooner.
I noticed
here we had a bunch of low and two real highs.
Here, the numbers are getting closer together.
Professor: Okay, so recorder, do you have all that?
Male
Student: I'm working on it.
Professor: Okay.
I'll move to the other part of the board
Male
Student: When will time travel
happen?
Professor: We didn't do your question last time, did
we?
Male
Student: No.
Professor: Okay, when will time travel happen? Is that specific enough for folks?
Male
Student: That's good enough.
Professor: Okay, we'll take 45 seconds again then see if
we can come up with an answer.
Professor: Okie doke.
Also, we need a recorder. Brandi,
how about you?
Female
Student: I can do it.
Professor: Okay, so starting from that side of the
classroom.
Male
Student: Never.
Female
Student: 3000
Male
Student: Never
Female
Student: 8000
Male
Student: Never
Professor: Okay, in the back?
Male
Student: Never.
Male
Student: Never.
Female
Student: Never.
Male
Student: Never.
Male
Student: 3000
Male
Student: 8500
Female
Student: 3500
Professor: Let's see what we got here. We have a bunch of highs here. There's only 6 less than never, so I guess
the median is never!
Okay, so we
have a couple of 3000's. Who picked
3000?
Female
Student: I did. But I really don't have a reason behind
it.
Professor: Okay, that's fine.
Male
Student: Technology's just going to keep
on going, so maybe
Professor: Anyone else want to say something about why
they picked a number? How about a
never? Anyone who guessed never?
Anybody
else?
Okay, let's
do the same thing. I'll give you 45
seconds and then we'll see if the estimates are any different.
Professor: Okie doke.
Alright, let's do it again.
Male
Student: Never.
Female
Student: Never
Male
Student: Never.
Female
Student: Never
Male
Student: Never
Male
Student: Never
Male
Student: Never
Female
Student: Never
Male
Student: Never
Professor: You don't have to pick never, but you
can.
Male
Student: Never
Male
Student: 2045
Male
Student: 8500
Female
Student: Never.
Professor: Okay, so let's see. Am I writing big enough? It looks like never gets it again, but we
have more nevers.
So when you
do that graph.... so the graph here- this graph will look differently, even
though this has the same median, effectively.
Alright. Well, I guess I'm
allowed to give my opinion. My opinion
is that backwards time travel is impossible, but forward time travel-
maybe. I would say, if I was going to
ask the question, I would want it to be more specific. So let's go on to the next one. Is Jacob here?
Male
Student: I did one already.
Professor: Okay.
Female
Student: I didn't go. When will we run out of gas or oil or
whatever.
Professor: When will we run out of gas? Does anyone see any ambiguities there or that
would hinder them from having a good understanding of the question? Do you mean natural gas?
Female
Student: Gasoline.
Male
Student: Fossil fuels.
Professor: Let's say gasoline. Any other questions about this? Is everyone happy with the question?
Professor: Diesel is actually an oil, so let's say
regular gasoline. Okay, I'll give you 45
seconds to come up with a date and then we'll take it from there.
Professor: Okie doke.
Let's go ahead and write down the estimated dates.
Male
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2080
Male
Student: 2060
Female
Student: 3000
Female
Student: 2050
Male
Student: 2100
Male
Student: 3000
Male
Student: 2150
Male
Student: 2100
Male
Student: Never
Female
Student: 2080
Male
Student: Never
Professor: Did I miss anybody? Alright, well let's see what we got. Ho is the recorder for this? We need to find a recorder.
Volunteers?
Female
Student: I'll write it down.
Professor: Oh, but it's your question!
Male
Student: I got it
Professor: Okay, so a couple nevers.... [Teacher
reading: [On board.] The median is 2100
a mere 87 years from now.
Professor: Okay, how about a couple of reasons. The way it works is that it's sometimes
informative to hear the reasoning behind the extreme values.
Male
Student: I don't think it will ever run
out because it'll just get more expensive so people won't buy it as much, so
we'll have it, we just won't use it.
Male
Student: The reason I chose 2050 is
because the amount of time before we reach peak oil and that means the maximum
production of oil and the time its decline comes, it'll be pretty vividly fast. We're too dependent on it right now. There have been numerous documentaries about
why we need to find alternate sources.
It's a really touchy question, sort of.
Professor: Any other comments? One more?
Any questions
for anybody who commented that you didn't understand?
Okay, let's
go ahead and think of your new estimate, or maybe your old estimate.
Professor: Okay, so why don't we go through again?
Male
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2080
Male
Student: 2060
Male
Student: 2200
Female
Student: 2040
Male
Student: 2100
Male
Student: 3000
Male
Student: 2100
Male
Student: Never
Male
Student: Never
Female
Student: Never
Professor: Okay, let's see what happens. I see more nevers. Anyway, there's 5 of these, then 1, 2, 3,
4... and leaving one of them left. So
the median and up to 2200.
So it looks
like people are scooting a little higher.
My take on
this- I sort of hate to tell you my take on this before you give your second
results.
But I do have
an opinion. Any kind of... as natural
resources get used up, people get scared and use less. There's a point where petroleum will be at a
peak and no matter what point it is it'll start to decrease because there will
be less of it. So it'll never quite get
to 0. They'll always be able to
manufacture an ounce in a lab if someone really wants it. I think the question should really be when
will the quantity of gasoline sold per year be at a maximum.
There will be
a point at which gasoline sales will hit a top and then they'll start to
decrease as people start to drive electric cars and so on that's my take on
it. Questions?
Okay. Can I erase this? Who was recording here?
Male
Student: I recorded the last one. That's an old one.
Professor: Let's see who's next. Lindsey.
You didn't go last time, did you?
Lindsey? Where's lindsey.
Female
Student: She's not here.
Professor: How about joshua? You didn't go last time, did you?
Male
Student: No. When will hand-held energy weapons....
Male
Student: Is that like a laser?
Professor: Should I say laser weapons, then? We need a recorder. How about you?
Male
Student: Okay
Professor: Any other questions about the question?
Male
Student: Can you repeat the question
Professor: When will handheld laser weapons emerge. Let's take 45 seconds to come up with an
answer.
We'll get to
that in a minute.
Professor: Okay.
Why don't we go ahead and write these down?
Professor: Next?
Male
Student: 2025
Female
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2035
Female
Student: 2030
Female
Student: 2031
Male
Student: 3000
Male
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2032
Female
Student: 2050
Male
Student: 2030
Female
Student: 2035
Male
Student: 2023
Professor: Okay.
Let's see what the median is.
[Teacher
reading: [On board.]
Okay, any
opinions on why you picked the date you picked?
Male
Student: Have we shown any progress
towards making these?
Male
Student: They have them mounted on trucks
now.
Male
Student: They're working on a laser that
can burn through 20 feet of steel in asecond.
Male
Student: The only limit to that is being
able to carry the energy
Professor: So the hand held aspect is pretty
critical? Hmm any other opinions? Anybody in the 3000 range like to
answer?
Does anyone
have any questions that would help you revise your estimate? Okay.
Then let's go ahead and think about it a little more and come up with a
new estimate based on what you heard, and we'll do the second iteration.
Professor: Alright.
Male
Student: 2020
Female
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2030
Female
Student: 2030
Female
Student: 2025
Male
Student: 2050
Male
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2020
Female
Student: 2050
Male
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2020
Professor: Okay.
Let's see what we've got here.
[Teacher reading: [On board.]
The median is
2025. 5 years is pretty significant here
because it's so close. I don't think I
have anything to say on this, but my estimate would probably be pretty close to
this.
I think
whoever suggested that the real issue is how do you pack that much energy into
such a small package is pretty much on the mark. Alright.
Is Zachary
here? No. Hannah?
Okay, so has the recorder for this question got everything down?
Male
Student: I've got all that
Professor: So what's your question?
Female
Student: When will the cybernetic revolt
happen?
Professor: We need a recorder. Any volunteers?
Female
Student: I can do it.
Professor: Anybody have any ambiguities about how to
make the question easier to answer?
Let's take 45
seconds to come up with an answer
Professor: Okay.
Let's start with you again
2070
Male
Student: 2085
Female
Student: 2055
Male
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2065
Male
Student: 2100
Male
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2150
Male
Student: 2045
Male
Student: 2055
Male
Student: 2200
Male
Student: Never
Female
Student: 2060
Professor: Okay, let's see. High, low... [Teacher reading: [On
board.] 2065 is the median.
No word on
whether the revolt will be successful.
Anyone want to give a reason as to why they picked that date?
Male
Student: One word- singularity.
Male
Student: In 2050, it'll be shortly after
singularity, so they'll be able to evolve and revolt against us.
Professor: Yeah, if they can improve themselves, things
will change. Any other comments? Anyone for a really far off one want to say
anything? Well, I think... I'll give you
my opinion later. Take another 45
seconds to think of a date and we'll try it again.
Professor: Okay, let's do it again.
Male
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2055
Female
Student: 2065
Male
Student: 2050
Male
Student: 2065
Female
Student: That was my question.
Male
Student: 2100
Male
Student: 2045
Female
Student: 2100
Male
Student: 2055
Male
Student: Never.
Female
Student: 2060
Male
Student: 2050
Professor: Let's see what we have here. [On board.]
The median is
2060, which is pretty close to the other one.
Actually, it does look pretty similar, doesn't it? Any comments?
You know, I
think there's fair chance it won't ever happen, but there's a fair chance it
would. I wouldn't know whether to pick a
date or not. Anyone who every tried to
write a computer program might have already thought of revolting.
Okay. Let's see Rosio, did you go last time?
Female
Student: No.
Professor: Okay, what's your question? First, has the recorder gotten this one?
Male
Student: Yes.
Female
Student: When will humans be able to
teleport?
Professor: We need a recorder. Okay, anybody unclear on the question?
Male
Student: Do you mean like disassemble
and move or just travel at the speed of light?
Female
Student: Just move.
Professor: Any other issues? Okay, well, let's do it
Professor: Okay, why don't we go ahead.
Male
Student: 2145
Female
Student: 2090
Male
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2060
Male
Student: 2100
Male
Student: Never
Male
Student: 2200
Female
Student: 3000
Male
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2099
Professor: Okay, so why?
Why did you pick the date that you picked? So like anybody in this range? Okay, so the singularity argument. We'll do everything by 2050. Any other arguments?
Anybody in
the upper ranges here care to say anything?
Okay. So think about your new
estimate and we'll get to it in a moment.
Alright,
we'll do the same thing again.
Male
Student: 2030
Female
Student: 3000
Male
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2500
Male
Student: 3000
Male
Student: 2050
Male
Student: 2045
Professor: Female Student: The recorder for this one have the
information? Is it all down? So we're up to Zachary. Are you here?
No Zachary. Renatta? So what's your question?
Female
Student: When will computers be smarter
than humans?
Professor: Any clarifications needed on the
question?
Male
Student: Yeah, like smarter as in like
larger capacity.
Male Student: Or able to do things on their own?
Female
Student: Able to do things on their
own.
Professor: Hmm....
Male
Student: I just wanted to specify what
she meant by smarter. She said it was
able to do things without humans.
Male
Student: If you think about it, this
computer can only do things that I can do, technically.
Female
Student: I guess processing stuff.
Professor: Alright, any other clarifications
needed? Let's take our 45 seconds and
then we'll compile the results. We need
a recorder.
Male
Student: I'll do it.
Professor: Okay, well, why don't we
2004?
Male
Student: It already happened!
Professor: Okay.
Male
Student: 2015
Female
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2020
Female
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2045
Male
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2045
Male
Student: 2045
Male
Student: 2045
Male
Student: 2030
Female
Student: 2040
Male
Student: 2020
Professor: Okay.
Anyone in the low range like to say something? For example, why 2004? How about in the high range?
Male
Student: Singularity.
Professor: Singularity!
Any other comments? One more
comment from somebody? alright, just to kind of... actually, we're going to run
out of time. Okay. Take another 30 seconds and see if you want
to revise your estimate.
Okay, let's
try it again.
Male
Student: 2015
Female
Student: 2020
Male
Student: 2020
Female
Student: 2015
Male
Student: 2015
Male
Student: 2050
Male
Student: 2045
Female
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2045
Male
Student: 2030
Professor: Okay, who is recording this again? Let's see... [Teacher reading: [On
board.]
The median
now is 2020. That's the initial
estimate.
This is after
discussion.
Let's see
what it is after.
[Teacher
reading: [On board.]
So the
estimate went up. That's my key
consideration- I'll mention that a computer has already been built that could
beat the world champion chess player, and IBM created one that won
jeopardy.
Whether
that's smarter, that's a tricky question, but it certainly is impressive.
Professor: Okay.
Collin. You didn't go last
time. So we need a recorder. Tanner, you do that.
Male
Student: When will we colonize other
planets?
Professor: Any questions about what that question
means? No questions? I'm going to ask for clarification, by other
planets, you are excluding the moon, and it's more than just mars?
Male
Student: Let's just say when will we colonize
another planet.
Professor: Fair enough.
I'm satisfied with the question.
Let's take 30 seconds to think about it.
Professor: Alright.
Male
Student: 2035
Female
Student: 2023
Male
Student: 2040
Female
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 3000
Male
Student: 2045
Male
Student: 2035
Female
Student: 2023
Male
Student: 2065
Male
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2030
Female
Student: 2100
Professor: Any arguments? Discussions?
Did I tell you mars one wants to start a colony by 2025 and they're
going to take applications for astronauts this may?
Any other
comments? I'm making a comment because
no one else made a comment. I hate to
skew it.
Female
Student: The mars thing is why I chose
2023.
Professor: Oh, it was 2023.
Male
Student: How long does it take to get
there?
Male
Student: I thought it was like 3
months.
Professor: Well, Pluto, they sent a ship there and it took
9 years. Mars is a lot closer. Any other comments or questions?
Alright. Well, take another quick think about it and
then we'll continue.
Let's start
again.
Male
Student: 2048
Female
Student: 2023
Male
Student: 2040
Female
Student: 2050
Female
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2033
Male
Student: 2035
Female
Student: 2023
Male
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2030
Male
Student: 2023
Professor: So this one comes out to 2035. After discussion, our median is. So the estimate is 2030, so the estimate got
a little sooner.
Okay. Who's was that? So tanner, what's your question? Let me make sure we've got.... where's the
eraser?
Professor: Who recorded this?
Male
Student: I got it all.
Male
Student: When will we have
holograms?
Professor: Any questions about what that means? We actually have 3 people to go.
Male
Student: For communication?
Male
Student: Yeah.
Professor: Like where you can see it standing in front
of you? Well, we have 3 people left, so
we'll do the other 2 people next time.
Let's finish this one now.
Male
Student: 2125
[Teacher
reading: [On board.]
Discussion?
Male
Student: I think they're already pretty
close.
Professor: Okay, other discussion? Let's do it again. What's your newest answer?
[Students
giving dates]
Professor: Okay.
Let's find the median.
So no
change. We'll do the last two next
time.
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