**1. Finish Hands-on Delphi Method if needed**

**Recall the process**

. . . each student

will extract the

wisdom of the group

by using

the Delphi Method

. . . (I will help as needed)

. . . Each person will also

have a chance

to be the recorder

. . . What are the steps?

**Let's finish using the**

**Delphi Method**

**now . . .**

**. . . each person gets**

a turn to lead it

. . . I'll help at the board

. . . each person will also

get to be a recorder

. . . recorder gives the

results to the leader

. . . leader keeps results

for a HW problem

**Before we start**

Recall from last time:

(Source: JC Glenn and TJ Gordon, eds. Futures Research Methodology V3.0, chap. 4, p. 10)

But what if the # responses is not divisible by 4?

. . . What should we do?

. . . Conceptually:

If there were millions of data points

What would be the range of the middle half?

Think about it!

If time, could be an in-class exercise

Source: http://www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/index.html

. . . Entire books

have been written on

the Delphi Method

**2. L**

**et's reflect a bit**. . .

We're doing it for practice

. . . how would doing it

"professionally"

differ?

. . . and what are the

"so whats?" of

these differences?

**Consider:**

# "How social influence can undermine

# the wisdom of crowd effect"

# (2011)

. . . Groups can give better estimates that individuals

. . . Expert estimates can be inferior to group medians (Galton, 1907)

But on the other hand:

. . . Crowd-sourced wisdom can go wrong

. . . Crowd-sourced wisdom can go wrong

. . . Group dynamics can reduce group wisdom

. . . Examples?

. . . They did 5 rounds of re-estimates

. . . . . . (we're doing 2)

. . . . . . Knowing others' estimates reduces range of estimates

. . . . . . . . . This can reduce quality of crowd estimates

. . . "Social influence effect":

. . . . . . reduces range without increasing accuracy

. . . . . . groups can converge without improving

. . . . . . how to minimize this problem?

. . . "Range reduction effect":

. . . . . . true value moves to the edge of the range

. . . . . . sounds like the social influence effect but worse

. . . . . . how to minimize this problem?

. . . "Confidence effect":

. . . . . . increases confidence in, but not accuracy of, estimates

. . . . . . how to minimize this problem?

So how to do the Delphi Method so as to actually get group wisdom?

**3.**

**Ambiguity in the question**

**- another important issue**

. . .we've noticed

this problem

let's look at a

well-known

example

Often, public parks

have rules

The rules try to

make them fun

for everyone

. . . The Greenway Park

Community Board

met and proposed

this rule:

. . . What does this

really say . . .

- and how can we fix it??

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